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The downside is the almond industry can't adjust supply of almonds (up or down) quickly and most producers have relatively fixed costs and are price takersfor the most part.

That creates a boom bust scenario.

In recent months commodity prices (including almonds) haven't done well. So many commodity producers are in the "busting" phase.

SHV has been somewhat insulted from this in recent years because almond prices have been strong and the AUD has been dropping rapidly.

Though the AUD has stablised over the last year. Almond prices in AUD terms will need to start strengthening again before the market will start supporting SHV again.

That said, I've actually been surprised how well the AUD has held up over the last 12 months and I suspect it will fall into the 60s at some point this year which should be good for SHV all else being equal.

That said, SHV is good long term value at these prices, no point selling at this stage, but I'm not buying either. I'll be on the sidelines until the freefall slows down.