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22/10/22
12:43
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Originally posted by joewolf:
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I don't think they are that random. I struggle to justify a premium for assets they buy as passive investors. Then if they take 1% plus a performance fee then you are on a hiding to nothing. BKI isn't one of the 1% crew as I recall but then again every few years they raise 15% at a discount and take the performance backwards - its in the pursuit of being larger. The difficulty for stocks like SOL and BKW is the fact that they are paying dividends less that 4%. I think we all got far too greedy in the days of inflation and then when inflation dropped to 2% we still expected distributions much higher than that. The banks have reduced almost all the staff they can - they have automated almost everything and the reality is that they have to keep raising more hybrid equity. We need to accept that in a low inflation environment we get low dividends but we have real buying power with that. I also thought coal prices were just because of the war. I am no longer of that view - I think the fact that it is the one area everyone cannot see a future for very few investments will be made into it. That under investment has been decades in the making. I don't think you will ever really be able to develop new coal mining in Australia - No New Akland 3 isn't new - the locals are dependent upon it and like drugs once on them very hard to see a future without them. My view of the coal price is based upon the fact that there are many coal fired power stations out there not being run at capacity all the time. Now you dont have Gas and oil from Russia you would have thought the largest price increase would be there but it isn't. That is because there is more elasticity of supply there. In coal as I see it the moment you increase consumption the only factor that can give is price - very in-elastic supply. That suggests that for the next decade Coal will still have a place and will probably revert to lower prices but not the $48 ton of a few years ago. The danger for us as investors is that our company thinks it will be there forever. I don't believe that I was excited when Rob M said the mines will be depleted around 2040 well before net zero 2050. The danger is continuing to invest in Coal beyond New Akland 3. That is why I am interested in the fact that Todd Barlow is a director of NHC and in fact that may help us not make too many mistakes in believing coal is there forever. AFI is an interesting stock and I think that many accountants tell retirees that they should buy 50% ARG and 50% AFI. I think that puts both of those at a premium. As more baby boomers retire more demand. I have noticed that PGF is also commanding a premium and I think its the fact that they have built up a large franking credit pool and have stated the dividend is 10c per annum into the future - people looking for yield have taken that from a discount to NTA to a premium. GW and that stable I just don't understand - its a real mystery to me and some of the followers are just plain nutty about what they think is in those companies. We only own one that is at WMA as it has a discount large enough to pay the extra fees etc. Where the likes of SOL , BKW and SFC sit in this unfolding market is a mystery to me. I am looking for things I don't have to cycle in and out of and pay CGT. CGT is the investment killer in my mind. It reduces your return substantially. Nice to kick around a few thoughts.
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interesting view re coal price surge due too not just the war. yes you will be right on that l suspect. yes the headline yields for SOL & BKW are low but because the dividends grow every year - your yield on your original investment will now be good. better than the banks if you have held for a while. headline dividends are a trap for new investors. Like Rudi says "l bought CSL for the yield" PGF fascinating share. it's now l think my 3rd largest holding. the difference between PGF and the others is their use of market shorts and investment in Energy. really happy holding PGF in this environment. yes AFI ARG - if you have to hold for a decade will give you asically index. it's very easy to replicate the AFI portfolio as they publish their top holdings. l have got into the habit of measuring my portfolio to index and recently to AFI as well.