Its hard to predict when the market will ascribe any value to this SatComms plan, right now you could say its almost valued at zero and almost a drag on the SP given the capital outlay concerns.
In any case, we expect firm customer commitments and debt locked away by Q1 2021 and an equity partner by Q2 2021. The market may ascribe some value to the implied enterprise value based on the equity partners commitment but the market may not price this thing appropriately until revenue is being returned and there is some clarity on actual returns.
Nevertheless, it will be interesting to see the valuations being applied, particularly if equity IRRs are way above 20%. Its a growth profile that is in addition to the large Defence RWS contracts in tender, down selection on large CUAS orders, Space developments in general and other Comms business. Add it all up and hopefully we get a bunch of price catalysts in 2021.
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