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EPA, page-6

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dbd25

7,307 Posts.

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18/10/23

15:27

Post #: 70408816
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Originally posted by RhysT: ↑

From what they have indicated briefly in post merger announement info, supposedly the merge isn't supposed to impact TMT's permit submission, or possibly only a minor amended ERD submission required.

To me that could indicate a few things.
a) they are full of crap and it's actually a much longer setback with considerable changes planned that will require new approvals.
b) they actually have no idea what will need changing with the submission, so no idea of permitting timelime, so they are just saying what they expect we want to hear, but is true at this point also, as they haven't actually changed the permit application (yet)
c) it could well indicate that they have talked strategy and have some plans in place already, and those plans mainly involve using TMT's processing plant, generally using their same plan to process yarrabubba first for the high titanium credits and low oxidation, so running with that, they may not need to amend the submission, or any amendment may only be, e.g. extending pits etc to incorporate any of AVL's good southern block ore. So EPA shouldn't need a year to go over small changes (This the WA epa though, all bets are off).

But as you said, they also talk integration, and AVL's plans were polar opposite to TMT with permitting for that plan well behind and extremely different.

So IMO my thinking around EPA is, however much they end up deviating from TMT's existing strategy, that will determine how large any amendments will need to be to the existing submission, OR, if they need to overhaul the whole submission and set us back years.

We really have no idea what their thoughts are, but a few of us have indicated running with TMT's plan would be the best strategy 'in our opinions', so if they see things the same way, permitting may not be too effected at all.

Going back to the start, this is exactly what they have told us is the case, so we can't do much but go by what they tell us.

A good Q and A with Ian wouldn't go astray right now.

Expand

There's no point asking Ian anything about the future plans of any merged company because he won't be in charge of the decision making. In any case, Ian and TMT have been leading investors up the garden path with regards to the company's plans, at least over the past few months, and my best guess is that they were planning this merger at least 15 months ago. Remember the last update of the estimated capex was $604m, which was EXACTLY the same as the $604m in the AVL BFS. Funny coincidence that, as is they were trying to imply the two projects were going to cost the same to set up. The predicted annual EBITDA's and Opex's were suspiciously similar too. If there was ever a time to aim to take money off the table with this project, it ought to be now. Sit it out until either TMT (or the merged company) come up with a DFS and full financial plan that looks like they might actually work, and the new management deliver something tangible. Otherwise, I'd say there are too many unknowns here.

All IMHO, DYOR

TMT Price at posting: 24.5¢ Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Not Held
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