We are at the early stages of the discovery phase pertaining to our activities in Greenland only with no debt (just milestone payments, with escrowed share/options), so I consider this golden honeymoon period. If the options are exercised, it'll mean money straight to the company etc.
There are two stocks I have been comparing, and these are not necessary apple comparisons in terms of resources size, but more so with what difficulties they are respectively having in their phases and how it is impacting their share prices. There is fair amount of cash they have been burning through, or about to spend based on their respective phases. There is currently only 31M shares (all the way from 1.9 cents - 9.5 cents) on EPM sell depth at total $1.3M of consideration that's only 1.76% of shares,
One stock is GGG, is in the orphan period, but has hit some technical (environmental concerns), with looming election coming up on April 6th.
So this uncertainty is being played out that the moment. They recently retraced from 34 cents to a crushing 15 cents. (the broker guidance from Euroz Sec, indicates that if the factions form an anti-uranium coalition, the bear scenario could send it to 10 cents (and their major share holder walking away)
So if we were talking about market caps, that's a recent high of $400M, down to current $200M, and a possible $100M looming (but currently 50% drop) They have some ETF support due partly to their market cap, and uranium by-product. It is presently contentious whether they are able to export the uranium. So the current ETF support they are enjoying ("dumb-money") has soaked up about 23M shares.
This is potentially a double-edge sword for them, as if they are on the cusp of a negative re-rate and may lose they near term producer status, potentially you could see a re-balancing out by the ETF. (they would have likely have dropped to 10 cents by now without the ETF support imo). I've been seeing a lot of the holders sell out of their positions via forum posts - just too much uncertainty for them.
AEX Gold (TSX/LSE) is basically in development stage as I understand it, and was due to commence ordering and dispatch of mining equipment and camp site; but due to COVID, and Greenland border shutdown for the month they have delayed; with no date in place yet to commence......
AEX Gold is listed in TSX and LSE, and appear relative market cap about the same as GGG; so makes for interesting comparison.
So they are at the lull of the development cycle. Overnight (two weeks ago) their share price dropped 50% off their recent highs.
Out from this we are certainly more fortunate we have strong longer-holder base; following different projects. We are not impacted by the politics and COVID restrictions (waiting for field season).
We are away from any local communities, and have essentially an existing mine, and infrastructure, and existing sea port in Ivittuut. (so our Ophan stage should in theory be quite short imo, and not 14 years: GGG).
We don't have major cash burn - so if I factor all this in I wouldn't be surprised if a preliminary JORC report is issued we see north of 5 cents (conservative - all bets are off if the JORC shows some exceptional results), shaking out retail shareholders happy with a "3x" exit. If LT/MT holders don't sell; we could see that the full JORC will get attention of the Market and institutional investments scraping the market for shares. (this doesn't at all factor in the other projects). (institutions are obsessed with Market Cap).
So at 5 Cents, and probably having triggered the 2nd completion and holding EGM, issuing the further 81M + 73M shares to Cerium (and the "Third party"), we should have 95M MC, which is not far off GGG (on their bearish scenario)
Note the actual Uranium party hasn't even started yet with out NT assets (U Spot price has regressed again - so we are lucky yet again to have a basket of projects), so these assumptions are just considering static commodity prices.
Note also the 2nd Completion comes with escrowed options at 1.5 cents, and 5 cents, with escrow period being <24, 12 months on a 50%/50% basis.
I will not be surprised if the actual risk to our long-term value is actually an opportunistic takeover offer; if there was it can't possibly be through on-market purchases (And good luck to them making one in the next couple of months at these prices!, the observer effect comes to play as whatever takeover offer or the mere mention or having a substantial holder appearing (not through placements) will move the share price.
Hence why it's important for holders to understand that we effectively have many chances for this investment to fire up; just need patience.
You will go mad looking at U Spot prices, so I have not factored that in. We are only a few months away from dry season now (May to Nov); which ironically coincides with Greenland spring. (field season?).
So i'll put it out there 5cents, (prelim-JORC)
End of year, 20 cents with solid JORC reserves, and JORC resources (Devil's Elbow will be not commercially viable until the spot price ticks up measurably to say $40lb, we are looking like a DSO imo). U spot price $40lb by end of year. (forecast is 2021f $32lb, and 2022f $48lb).
(Excluded Ngalia Basis, Mary Valley just to keep this simple).
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