@trance I also have confidence that the February result will surprise on the upside but I have little confidence on how the share market will perceive the result. I was baffled by the May 24 drop from $7.2 to $4, I still don't understand it and given the most recent updates, this company should be trading between $7-$9 now.
I have gone through the FY24 result in minute detail and I cannot find where the problem is. Perhaps because there's little analysis of this company (only Wilsons and Cannaccord cover the stock and Melissa Benson from Wilsons has left the company), the aussie market still perceives this company as a supplier of generics and US/Aus manufacturer, but much has changed in the last two years.
The FY24 result maybe misleading to many, MYX reported underlying EBITDA of $22.9M which became -$169M NOPAT but breaking this down into what adjustments were made to the underlying figure, it shows that it was the first year since 2017 with no asset impairments and the negative result contained two non cash items -$68M amortisation of intangibles and -$83M earn out reassessment and cash payment of $33M for class action.
Looking into FY25 result, I am forecasting underlying EBITDA of $60-$90M (the 4 month run rate is already at $45M) and as far as what adjustments might be made to this, there will be amortisation of intangibles, say $60M (non cash), possible milestone payments to Pop Council, say $18M(cash), legacy payments , say $4M(cash) and not much else, so FY25 NOPAT and EPS could actually be positive or slightly negative.
We are heading back to the 2014-16 years (prior to TEVA) where EPS were $.2 to $.9 and the share price was $15-$28.
In summary, I think patience will be rewarded but it has not been an easy road.
MYX Price at posting:
$4.49 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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