EPS Estimate CAD$0.40

According to Custeel the average 65% Fe for this quarter was US$232/t

There is 1 million tonnes subject to provisional price adjustment from last quarter set at US$183/t but will have realised US$232/t so equals US$49/t positive adjustment total of US$49 Million.

1.9 million tonnes sold this quarter will realise around average US$200/t (half of which will be subject to a provisional price adjustment for next quarter)

CFR costs approx US$75/t (shipping a bit higher this quarter)

So 1.9 million tonnes by US$125 profit margin equals U$$237M + US$49M adjustment as above = US$286M EBITDA which is CAD$350M approx.

CAD$350M EBITDA is 26% higher than last quarter CAD$286M

EPS last quarter was CAD$0.32. Add 26% for EPS this quarter equals CAD$0.40

This is a rough guide but should be fairly close.

Add CAD$0.40 to the last 3 quarter's EPS of CAD$0.32, 0.25 & 0.24 & result is TTM (Trailing twelve months) EPS CAD$1.20 (AUD$1.28)


PE ratio as at today is a low 6.2 (CAD FY EPS $0.97 = AUD$1.04)

Using this PE of 6.2 and multiply by TTM EPS AUD$1.28 as above = AUD$7.90 share price.

Summary: CIA is undervalued & should see a decent share price increase in July as quarterly results come in to focus.