"Realistically, pre-covid19, $700million raise would add to the existing $4B market cap, which should make a market cap of $4.7B. Given this 700mil will be burned through the course of operation, it is reasonable to ignore this $$ injection. We are now left with $4B to make adjustments with."
I very much disagree with the proposition in the first part of the quoted para. To notionally/theoreticallly add $680m (net) to the 'then' MC isn't appropriate because there was no need to raise that sum back then. It's all about comparing the entire package that represented the previous version of the company (with its 'then' MC) to the entire package that represents the current version of the company, which now includes the required freshly raised cash.
Agreed that most of that raising is likely to be burned through - by my reckoning somewhere in the next ~3½+ months* (or 5+ months when measured from 1 March). It might be worth asking how it will impact the MC if/when that $680m cash is gone and ops haven't snapped back to the previously profitable conditions by this time frame - remembering that FLT's global leisure network has been permanently downsized by 50%.
(*$680m net raised, less $210m budgeted one-off implementation costs, less $155m additional net cash costs during transitional, less + $65m/mth run-rate net cash outflow from 1 March lasts ~5 months. These numbers exclude any additional(?) offsetting income that might be earned (just trying to present a balanced analysis) and also the benefit of the JobKeeper program - both of which will have an add-back benefit and act to extend the run-down time frame of the freshly raised cash - hence the '+' time element. This analysis just looks at how long the new cash raised will likely last and ignores existing cash reserves and available lending headroom.)
I respect your right to have a view on the MC. Just thought I'd feedback on the problem highlighted above.
Cheers, Z
PS. My comment about the cruising sector was nothing more than an aside. We all know that FLT is a travel agency. The shorthand point was that the cruising sector will have its work cut-out convincing the traveling public that they will be safe to travel on when the bans are progressively lifted. In time memories/fears will fade, but that won't be measured in months, imo. As such, its likely to be a source of revenue that will probably not factor for FLT very much. (I'm not saying cruising is dead. The buying public tends to have a short memory, but when palpable fear is involved the energy/time required to restore trust it is much, much greater.)
(20min delay)