EQUITY RESEARCH REPORT - WILSON dated 18 Jan 2022, page-2

Wilson's projecting European peak sales of $630m...nice.

Add the USA market 'peak sales' and you won't get much change out of $1.3B per year in revenue.

Late stage M&A valuation rule of thumb is around 5 X Peak Sales.

So...a deal with $6.5B valuation if ATL1102 delivers the same efficacy results per Phase 2?

Possible.

BUT ...the Board want optionality to go to market alone...Dr G and Diamond have expressed this.

Now, with futility read out mid 2023...and massive team of 3 people at HQ...how the heck is ANP going to market a drug on it's own???

mRNA tech is becoming very fashionable....and desirable given Gene Therapy failures.

imo...the play here is to get FDA nod re tox study and approval to use EMA P3 results in the US.

Then let Big Pharma make bids if futility is positive.

Time will tell.
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