Not true from what I can see - the $380m may already have been...

Not true from what I can see - the $380m may already have been spent, but the liability for provisions on their latest books is $525m - have a look, and there is an offsetting $67m investment in a trust fund, so net is $458m. And there is $293m in cash - so a $165m shortfall just on cash and rehab provisions alone at 31/12/14. then they had inventories of saleable Uox worth $90m, which leaves them down $75m excluding royalties and other costs. They will be able to sell some gear, and get some cashflow from processing.

If there is any cash left over at the end, it will probably not be paid out until there is certainty of covering the rehab. So maybe there will be a cash pile in 2025 or so. If you discount the receipt of this cash - whatever it is, (RIO does not seem certain there will be any) for waiting 5 to 10 years, at even 10%, you are reducing the NPV of this cash dramatically. You need to factor in a risk of another containment issue as well.

Their remaining reserves of Uox were 6206 t at that balance date, or 13.7m pounds, assuming 65% recovery (highest head grade processed first and lower head grades available now and into the future, with lower recovery expected, or higher costs) which is worth say $AU450m once processed, before any royalties and costs. Check out the nov 2012 pres for an idea of production expectations - noting that the price of Uox was much higher back then.