I am sure the ASX 200 exit is playing a role in the share price languishing (if only because it is a believable narrative shaping market expectations at the moment).
But financial economics 101 teaches that as soon as a consistent pattern is detected (i.e. a deviation from the efficient market hypothesis) someone will devise a strategy to exploit it.
So, if everyone knows (or assumes) there are a group of hedge funds who short-sell stocks likely to exit the ASX 200 (or some other index), thereby ensuring an exit does take, with a view to covering their positions when index funds exit, then that creates an opportunity for another set of hedge funds to cut their lunch. That is, a second group of hedge funds can wait until the share price is driven very low, buy up as much stock as possible, so when the exit from the ASX 200 occurs, the shorters are left - well - short of stock they can purchase because the index funds only have so much they need to sell. In this case, the shorters will have to purchase on the market, and the second set of hedge funds could make an absolute packet. They would essentially be benefiting from all the time and money the shorters invested in driving the share price so low. This is especially low risk if the underlying assets are worth, in STX's case, north of 30 cents.
Maybe some like Regal or Nero will cotton on to this opportunity soon.
But the sheer fact it hasn't happened, despite all the positive announcements, suggests to me something else is going on. That is, Gina is using her 4.9% stake to stifle any upward momentum, selling a few million shares at times around good announcements and then clawing it back over the coming days. But I won't go down that rabbit hole again...
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I am sure the ASX 200 exit is playing a role in the share price...
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