Eregulla Deeps, page-201

@invertedva



Nope. Same valuation as it was back in early April. They have issued all sorts of plausible excuses since....

W7 successful drill - means nothing until it is flow tested
W7 successful flow testing - nothing but silence (ran out of excuses)
Peaker plant announcement - lots of risk involved, still not awarded (fair enough). gave it 1cps risked valuation but never actually incremented the target price



Capacity awarded - risked at 60% on value of 4cps, so that's a risked value of 2.5cps. But somehow, it also mentions upside from a full derisking of 3cps. Do you guys follow this or is my English just really crap? How do you have a gross value of 4cps (what the current risking is based on) that drops to 3cps once it's fully derisked? I have better chance of understanding this if this was written in Latin with cow manure.

Prior to WE EPA Approval, Macca also wrote...


After EPA approval.... more silence.

Then there was the detailed risked NAV model Macca had published post SE2/3 that had more holes than a fish netting, with basic arithmetic errors that I wouldn't expect from primary school kids? The very same NAV model that they no longer publish in their notes in subsequent updates? They probably worked out it is far easier to fudge numbers without having to reconcile the model.

Throw in the almost instant downgrade when it was above its TP and lack of action while it is well below its TP, it really doesn't take Einstein or Sherlock Holmes to see the biases and convenient omissions/mistakes. Analysts are usually your typical type A, OCD, number-obsessing perfectionists. Yet Macca seems to have stumbled upon the one exception who conveniently downgrade numbers (something worth 4cps unrisked that is only worth 3cps once fully derisked), drop off numbers (attributing 2.5cps risked value but not added to TP), or better still, totally ignores positive development such as W7 flow testing when no amount of bullsh1t can fudge his numbers.

Anyway, wasted enough of my previous time discussing about Macca for a day.

Some people in this world really are a total waste of good oxygen and space.

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