Escape from the AUZ echo chamber

In the interest of the minority who would like dispassionate, objective discussion of AUZ,
before the casino is open, I want to post some of my observations.

These are likely to generate a firestorm of hostility on the existing threads, so it is better to quarantine it by itself.
I gather opposing views are not always appreciated on some threads.

There are not many choices in the cobalt space so AUZ must be considered.
That doesn't mean we should ignore potentially negative aspects.

1. Assuming AUZ can comply with all the material conditions, there will be a major raise needed to build the plant
before the Promised Land of Offtake provides income. The terms and counterparties of the financing are unknown. But AUZ must get financed
and I don't think SK is going to do it. If they were willing to, they could have announced their intention in the present deal and their option value would have doubled on account of their commitment.

2. The margins for AUZ will surely be decent but the discount/premium to spot prices are not public.
So true cash flow on the deal to AUZ will remain opaque. Makes me a little leery, we do not know what discount was given to SK to close the deal. Between the unknowns in finance and the unknowns on the income side, in the end AUZ margins could disappoint people.

3. The total cash revenue announced is $5 billion over 13 years, it is tremendous.
But the schedule does not solve problems that AUZ must overcome in the next four years.

4. The offtake has been referenced as being earmarked for the SK Hungarian plant. Thus the off-take will not be needed until
that plant is operational. The SK deal leaves AUZ nine or ten months for financing, two years for build and two years for ramp-up.
This provides some comfort because as long as AUZ is in step with the Hungarian plant, they are probably OK.

5. I looked for Mr. Bell's previous experience in building mines. I did not find any. Over the last 15 years I see no track record.

Personally I see no reasons for the market to react better this week than it did last week.
I hope all the longs make a killing next week, good for them. But I don't think it will happen, because I do not think anything has changed materially from two weeks ago when we got the "Leak", which has been materially confirmed.

If people are disappointed they should start asking why, without blaming phantom market and sentiment manipulators.

I will be happy to enter near the price of the Korean option. Preferably a little under.