L,
I am now choosing not to comment on anything other than specifics.
That is, you ask me what colour the office walls are painted and I'll tell you red. If you ask me whether I think they should be painted another colour and I'll tell you to speak to the guys that have to work there.
I will be moving into a research based company in the next month under an AFSL, so my time for making comment on HC is limited.
My opinion is one of many.
My comments are likely to be subjective and thick with influence from my time in dealing with this company. But the ether trail cast by my past experiences may not be entirely relevant to what is happening today. Hence my caution.
Again, if you ask me whether the walls should be another colour, I say:
- Look at the price (the market always knows best)
- Find out what the status is of Tincom (remembering it was the company maker almost 12mths ago.
- Look at the price (the market knows best)
- Ask why they had to take the LJC note when the company was supposed to be in the best shape its ever been in.
- Find out what LJC's holding was at balance date 28th Feb (after being issued 43M shares).
- Ask why their cash burn has been increasing over the last 2 years in the absence of completed deals.
- Look at the shareprice.
I dont know what they are doing these days, so now I have to look at the company like any other fund manager would look at a company they are not intimate with - by viewing the publicly available information and tying together all the overt and circumstantial pieces of information to build an overall understanding of its investment grade status.
Mind you, this could all change with:
a) confirmation that Tincom has comitted to developing the project.
b) full feasibility of the plants
c) a (genuine) strategic investor offering them cash for equity (and not a sneaky takeover)
d) a genuine other binding deal (although this could be difficult until the 1st deal has been completed)
This is a speculative company. It really doesnt matter what I say. One day it could be up 50% then next day it could be all over. Your opinion probably matters far more than mine Lautrec.
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