esimates production eps share price

Here are some estimations for the combined group. Will be interesting to see what comments any have on the figures.
This is estimated for 2009 calendar year. Not taking into account any acquisitions, upside, expansions etc.
Using the following $US metal prices:
Gold - $800 oz
Silver - $16 oz
Copper - $7,500 Tonne
Zinc - $1,800 Tonne
Lead - $1,700 Tonne
Nickel - $20,000 Tonne

Sepon - Laos (Oxiana)
Gold - 102k oz Revenue = $81.6m
Copper - 62k, 80k in 2010 Revenue = $465m
silver - 145k oz Revenue = $2.3m
Total $548.9m

Golden Grove - WA (Oxiana)
Zinc - 135k Revenue = $243m
Copper - 20k Revenue = $150m
Gold - 50k oz Revenue = $40m
Siver - 3 Million oz Revenue = $48m
Lead - 10k Revenue = $17m
Total $498m

Prominent Hill - SA (Oxiana)
Copper - 117k Revenue = $877.5m
Gold - 86k oz Revenue = $68.8m
Siver - 390k oz Revenue = $6.2m
Total $952.5m

Martabe - Indonesia (Oxiana)
Gold - 200k oz Revenue = $160m
Siver - 2 Million oz Revenue = $32m
Total $192m not included (starting end of 2009)

Century - QLD (Zinifex)
Zinc - 527k Revenue = $948.6m
Lead - 44k Revenue = $74.8m
Siver - 4 Million oz Revenue = $64m
Total $1.087.4m

Rosebery - TAS (Zinifex)
Zinc - 84k Revenue = $151.2m
Copper - 2k Revenue = $15m
Gold - 31k oz Revenue = $24.8m
Siver - 3 Million oz Revenue = $48m
Lead - 22k Revenue = $37.4m
Total $276.4m

Avebury - TAS (Zinifex)
Nickel - 8.5k Revenue = $170m


Dugald River - QLD (Zinifex) Production in 2011

Izok Lake - Canada (Zinifex) Production in 2014

High Lake - Canada (Zinifex) Production in 2016


Toal Revenue (excl Martabe) = $3,533.20

Oxiana achived an NPAT margin of 25%, Zinifex have higer margin 35-40%

BHP achieves about 35%

Using NPAT margins of 20%, 25%, 30% and 35%.
NPAT @ 20% on $3533.2 = $706.6m
NPAT @ 25% on $3533.2 = $883.3m
NPAT @ 30% on $3533.2 = $1,060m
NPAT @ 35% on $3533.2 = $1,236.6m

@ 8 P/E@ 10 P/E@ 12 P/E
EPS = 22.8c $1.82 $2.28 $2.74
EPS = 28.5c $2.28 $2.85 $3.42
EPS = 34.2c $2.74 $3.42 $4.10
EPS = 39.9c $3.19 $3.99 $4.79

Outstanding shares = 3,101m

I think the merged entity will fall between 30-35% range


cheers