OXR oxiana limited

esimates production eps share price

  1. 2,409 Posts.
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    Here are some estimations for the combined group. Will be interesting to see what comments any have on the figures.
    This is estimated for 2009 calendar year. Not taking into account any acquisitions, upside, expansions etc.
    Using the following $US metal prices:
    Gold - $800 oz
    Silver - $16 oz
    Copper - $7,500 Tonne
    Zinc - $1,800 Tonne
    Lead - $1,700 Tonne
    Nickel - $20,000 Tonne

    Sepon - Laos (Oxiana)
    Gold - 102k oz Revenue = $81.6m
    Copper - 62k, 80k in 2010 Revenue = $465m
    silver - 145k oz Revenue = $2.3m
    Total $548.9m

    Golden Grove - WA (Oxiana)
    Zinc - 135k Revenue = $243m
    Copper - 20k Revenue = $150m
    Gold - 50k oz Revenue = $40m
    Siver - 3 Million oz Revenue = $48m
    Lead - 10k Revenue = $17m
    Total $498m

    Prominent Hill - SA (Oxiana)
    Copper - 117k Revenue = $877.5m
    Gold - 86k oz Revenue = $68.8m
    Siver - 390k oz Revenue = $6.2m
    Total $952.5m

    Martabe - Indonesia (Oxiana)
    Gold - 200k oz Revenue = $160m
    Siver - 2 Million oz Revenue = $32m
    Total $192m not included (starting end of 2009)

    Century - QLD (Zinifex)
    Zinc - 527k Revenue = $948.6m
    Lead - 44k Revenue = $74.8m
    Siver - 4 Million oz Revenue = $64m
    Total $1.087.4m

    Rosebery - TAS (Zinifex)
    Zinc - 84k Revenue = $151.2m
    Copper - 2k Revenue = $15m
    Gold - 31k oz Revenue = $24.8m
    Siver - 3 Million oz Revenue = $48m
    Lead - 22k Revenue = $37.4m
    Total $276.4m

    Avebury - TAS (Zinifex)
    Nickel - 8.5k Revenue = $170m


    Dugald River - QLD (Zinifex) Production in 2011

    Izok Lake - Canada (Zinifex) Production in 2014

    High Lake - Canada (Zinifex) Production in 2016


    Toal Revenue (excl Martabe) = $3,533.20

    Oxiana achived an NPAT margin of 25%, Zinifex have higer margin 35-40%

    BHP achieves about 35%

    Using NPAT margins of 20%, 25%, 30% and 35%.
    NPAT @ 20% on $3533.2 = $706.6m
    NPAT @ 25% on $3533.2 = $883.3m
    NPAT @ 30% on $3533.2 = $1,060m
    NPAT @ 35% on $3533.2 = $1,236.6m

    @ 8 P/E@ 10 P/E@ 12 P/E
    EPS = 22.8c $1.82 $2.28 $2.74
    EPS = 28.5c $2.28 $2.85 $3.42
    EPS = 34.2c $2.74 $3.42 $4.10
    EPS = 39.9c $3.19 $3.99 $4.79

    Outstanding shares = 3,101m

    I think the merged entity will fall between 30-35% range


    cheers
 
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