Movement in right direction.ESS gained 2.5c to finish on 45c....

Movement in right direction.

ESS gained 2.5c to finish on 45c. ASX Li stocks were mostly flat. of 54 stocks that I track, average gain was 1%..

The general market is not looking good for short term. It is good to see that we have slightly decoupled from market. Its been two days, we will need more data to confirm that, but its looking good from that direction. And we really need this decoupling in order to keep going up. Tonight will be a good test of that.

Yesterday US Futures were big green but I had felt that it would be most probably be sideways to slight red. The green evaporated soon even before market opening, and my slight red became a slightly bigger red, but not really unexpected. Around 10 days back when SP 500 was around 4280, I had said that we have room for 1 to 3% to fall for current bull run. That we lost last Monday. Last 4 to 6 weeks I have been talking about numbers if the current bull run fails - which happened when SP 500 reached 4325 and could not cross 200 day moving average by 1 point. First number which chartists/analysts are looking for is 3900 which falls on trendline. But big expectations are around 3800, lot of reading that I have done mentioned if SP 500 4180 does not hold, 3800 is very probable - this is another 4% down from yesterday's close.

Personally when 4180 did not hold and VIX started going up, I started getting out of lot of my general trading stocks, and only putting it on stocks that are running hot. Till now one sector is running well, and lot of movement happened there.

Tonight again its looking dicey. Sometimes I feel US indices just do another big drop, touch whatever they want and lets start moving up. At least most days would be good, rather than having the sword on the neck all the time. But besides inflation, lot of other areas of economy are doing very well, so we could bounce anytime. in the drop that is happening now, the 2 Year yield is not dropping much, so many feel we should not fall much further. Next big day is Sep 13 for CP, but that is still a while to go. If market falls next number is 3900, another 2% down. The best situation would be if both U/Li sectors decouple from general market. They both are bullish, macro strongest it ever has been. Lets hope it happens that way. All the best.