It is nothing new, unusual or surprising that overlapping of waves does happen within the development of a trend however the shape of the wave where it does happen has to be a diagonal.
Since a diagonal can happen in 4 out of 5 possible places it simply comes down to eliminating the possibilities one by one and deciding if indeed we are faced by a diagonal if it is a leading or ending diagonal. Seeing that ESS has really just started, I think it is save to say that what we are looking at here, is not a wave 3. Neither could it be a corrective wave A or C and certainly not a (trend) ending diagonal. So that would leave ESS and the proponents of possibilities of wave overlapping with only on option for the entire move so far, being a leading diagonal. Now before we go any further, the burning question, following beisha’s interpretation, is does the entire ESS move so far at all look like a diagonal?
If the/you answer is no, than we don’t have to look for any further reasons for overlapping and the very basic EW ground rule applies, where wave 4 doesn’t overlap with wave 1 -End of Story!
So I guess it is now up to beisha to convince us that the entire ESS move so far including its internal waves does look like a leading diagonal as depicted in the above schematic. If he can’t do that you know what’s next - it should be the End of the Story!
However going by recent experiences and what he posted above, like “I have said many many times to FP that EW breaks down from time to time, mainly via black swan events, bearish macro and the introduction of modern trading in general, you need to have a more flexible approach to EW” and many more like it. So yes, I have seen beisha's wave counts indicating wave 4th retracing to Fib 78.6%, Fib 100% and even Fib 127.2%, especially when he claimed that EWT is kaputt, is broken or wave 4 got swamped by negative FA.
