ESS Daily Report, page-55

Well, well, what was that - Has ASX decided to be independent of US Markets?

Yes ESS gained 1c to finish at 34.5c. Our volume was not very high but much better than last few days, just over 11m shares traded. A very solid day today, playing in the next range - has got above 34c with a touch of 35.5. Its looking good and certainly is reaching the state of buy - just need another day to confirm

ASX Li stocks had a very good day. Of the 54 stocks that I track, there was average gain of around 4.5%. Last 2 days we gained 2% and 2.5%. So compound just in 3 days the ASX Li stocks I follow has increased 10%. This has been the best 3 consecutive days after some time. Lets hope this is the beginning of the revival.

Overnight US Li stocks again looked weak. Although the ETF of LIT was nearly flat, on average other stocks lost 1%. Considering the behaviour of US Li stocks, it was very surprising and promising to see ASX Li stocks do so well.

What next:
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Yesterday SP 500 again played the same game it is into for last 3 weeks. Finished at 3808, managing to stay above 3800 with a touch of 3802 - losing over 1%. But trading range was same - between 3800/3900. ASX shrugged of the loss overnight with a strong day with gain of around 0.65%.
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Today was a different day, after quite some time. ASX has been sheepishly following US markets for some time. Today it looked like it wanted to carve out its own path. Or may be lead US markets now? That would be too much to ask. But, still a great day. What was very significant that most stocks that I follow, which are in risk-on category, made some solid gains today. Lets see if its just a flash in the pan or something that may continue.
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SP 500 is at very critical level now. The weekly job reports which came yesterday, I had felt that it won't be that significant compared to other monthly data which is coming today, but it still manage to spook the markets in a decent way. The markets were weak throughout and finishing near the lows. Critical bottom level is 3780/3750 - failing which a bigger drop is possible. we need to regain 3900 to go up, and possibly move towards 4030 if market is bullish.
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Lead indicators did not do well yesterday along with general markets, with Dollar Index, Yields and VIX rising. Charts too are giving mixed signal now - so its 50/50 from here. The slight advantage we had before yesterday was neutralised yesterday
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We are at critical level where a deadlock has happened. Markets have been going sideways and coiling. It will snap - we don't know in which direction. Economic data will drive that as technicals are not able to resolve that.
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Personally I did not like yesterday's US market trading when it was panicking on the jobs report. As I had mentioned yesterday I got out of one big play in Oil yesterday. Today I got out of another big play - in weekend report I had written I had put a lot on Canadian Li explorer - got out today after results. I was very lucky as had a big amount and both these trades came out well in front. Both can go further but had met my trading target, so thought will assess what to do for next stage. Played out a few others, had become heavy in some after buying for last number of days - my way of managing risk on a binary event.
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So what will happen tonight? Tonight another binary event, a toss. Non-farm payroll and Unemployment data - both very significant for Fed. They can certainly provide a strong direction. Unemployment is predicted to be same at 3.7% but NFP may fall. We need at least one good number if not both for a rally and smash through 3900 for a start. Will that happen? Lets hope so. Enjoy your weekend and all the best.