Will CPI make or break the market tonight?Yes ESS gained half...

Will CPI make or break the market tonight?

Yes ESS gained half cent to finish at 49c. Our volume good, but its decreasing every day since announcement, just over 8.2m shares traded. ESS trading was as expected.

ASX Li stocks had a decent day without being spectacular. Of the 73 stocks that I track, there was average gain of around 2%.
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Overnight US Li markets had a very good day. Last few days they were not doing well. Yesterday I had written that maybe they will do the catch up tonight. And they did exactly that. Although the ETF of LIT was up around 2.5%, but rest of US Li stocks had a bumper day, average gain was over 6%. That way our gain of 2% today seemed very small - but we had other good day, so looks like US and ASX Li going in parity.
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What next:
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Yesterday US markets had a very good day. They opened in green and stayed there. Yesterday I had written that I have a feeling 3960 will be in play, SP 500 crossed that and finished on 3969 - a gain of around 1.3%. ASX too gained around a similar figure.
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SP 500 is now reaching the critical level of 4000/4030 I have been talking about. If its to happen, it should happen tonight. If it fails due to some reason like bad CPI data etc, it will become difficult. But will also depend on whether market then has a big dip or sideways with a slight dip. If its sideways, it will still be open. But as long as SP 500 is above 3800 and does not fall below 3750 - door will be still open.
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Tonight crucial CPI data which will provide strong market direction. Many analysts believe that this is one of the biggest indicators to have a large market movement. Many believe it can swing market up to 5% - so is very critical
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Analysts are currently divided over what is going to happen. Many charts are still quite bullish for the short term. There is one pattern though which is concerning for many. In 2022 on a number of occasions there was a pattern that if we rally up to CPI, then we fall on CPI day. And reverse, if we were sold off prior to CPI data, then we had a rally. Not always, but mostly. Yesterday we had a rally, so some feel that any gain is already priced in and we could fall - based on pattern. Pattern is important as many charts are based on that. But in 2022 we also broke a number of patterns. It looks like we need to start 2023 to be different than 2022 - and if we rally up to CPI, then rally continues - that's the good path. If things don't go well, lets hope we just lose a little and recover a bit alter.
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Personally, after reading and listening to many analysts, there were doubts in my mind. But I decided to go ahead, I know its risky. Currently I am 75% in market and holding 25% cash, lets see.
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So what will happen tonight? Another binary event. Another toss. CPI data before market opens. Also some jobs data, but CPI may overpower - jobs data could provide a tempering effect in either direction - if its different from CPI direction. We have a lot of big bad days in 2022. Probability, or lets say hope, says that we need to start this year with big good days. Will that happen? Lets hope so. All the best