Did we fail to capitalise due to high expectation?Yes ESS gained...

Did we fail to capitalise due to high expectation?

Yes ESS gained half cent to finish at 49.5c. Our volume was average, just over 2.5m shares traded. So after 4 big volume days since announcement, today we reached the average volume we used to do. Its moving up slowly towards 50, but has still not touched it this week. It would be interesting to see if it does and what it means if it crosses that. Lets see.

ASX Li stocks were mixed, had a strong open but faded away as the day went. Of the 73 stocks that I track, it was flat and on average there was no gain or loss.
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Overnight US Li stocks again had a strong day. After gaining average 6% previous day, they followed it up yesterday with another gain of average 3% plus. So good showing from them. We looked like going in same direction in morning - but lost direction later.
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What next:
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Yesterday US markets had a decent day, nothing spectacular. SP 500 had a decent swing from 3937 to 3997, finally finishing in green at 3983 - up around 0.3%. ASX did slightly better at around 0.6%..
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Yesterday SP 500 crossed 3995 where there was a gap. It could not touch 4000 though - left it for another day. Key level now is 4030 and a finish above 4000 - if it goes up. Going down, it now needs to hold 3900 to keep the positive momentum.
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I have been calling for weeks now that there will be a test of 4000/4030 on SP 500 - which I was calling the bounce. Although it did not touch 4000, but in one sense it has already done a test of this as it came to 3997. So from that perspective it nearly reached the level I was thinking it has a high chance. I have also been writing that I don't know what will happen after that - and I still don't know.
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Yesterday we got very good CPI number. So why didn't we rise much? As I wrote on the weekend, its all about expectation. Last month number was 7.1. Just a few days back, forecast was 6.7. They revised it to 6.5. And it came 6.5. So although there was a big drop, but since it was expected, it did not provide that satisfaction/happiness to market so that it could go on a merry ride. I don't understand why they can't keep the expectation low - we would have been flying now. Oh well, that's how things work. One good thing was that we still finished in green, there was an attempt to push it down in red
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So where are we now? We have had decent gains in general markets - SP 500 now touching 4000. Most stocks have made gains from their recent lows, though as expected, some have gained more and some less. It would range from 10% to 40% across different stocks. Average would be in early 20s percentage. So still a decent gain which we should be mindful of - it could have been worse. But now it seems that there is a bit of stalling/consolidation going on. Market is looking for next big move. Economy in general seems to be getting better, so there is still a good chance that we move in positive direction. There are still some analysts who are saying we have to do a final bottom somewhere around 3250 in SP 500, possibly Q1 or Q2 of this year. But many are now receptive to the theory that we may not reach there anymore. Even if we fall, we might do a higher low and then move up.
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Lead indicators all good - Yields. Dollar Index and Volatility Index having a big fall. VIX is now below 20. They say below 20 means we are trading like a bull market. Also VIX fell 10% yesterday. There is a theory that when this big drop happens, SP 500 drops big in a day or maximum 2 - So Friday or Monday according to that theory. But charts and indicators all pointing towards a positive feel. Even the sentiment indicator is now on Greed. So now strong drivers to push us down big immediately - Recession/Earnings - those words could be catalyst and fodder for bears - but they are not there yet. So we should stay here and move forward - we may do a back test though of early 3900.
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Personally, I am staying put for now - shuffling some stocks around, or buying and selling same stock to reduce average, but keeping the same exposure
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So what will happen tonight? We move now into Earnings Season. lot of banks to report tonight - they may provide strong direction. Also some economic data - Import/export, Consumer Sentiment, etc. There is a good chance Sentiment and Technicals will also provide strong direction. There is a good chance that SP 500 will make an attempt at 4030 and finish above 4000 shortly - it could be tonight. Will that happen? Lets hope so. Enjoy your weekend and all the best