Weekly Review Li Stocks - 13th Jan 2023Here is the weekly review...

Weekly Review Li Stocks - 13th Jan 2023

Here is the weekly review figures and charts that I do every week. It is useful only for those interested in trading or those who hold multiple shares and based on performance would like to keep re-balancing as we go. I do hold a number of Li stocks and like to trade. This is the reason I include a number of Li Stocks in my analysis.

Please note:
This is no reflection of all AU Li stocks as I have only included those that I am interested. In my list are shares that I hold, held before or planning to buy in near future. Since this is my list, I may have missed some good stocks. The averages are simple averages and not weighted averages. So the average don't reflect AU Li average. This is just for my tracking and analysis. I have both ASX and US stocks in two separate figures.

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Please note that all my analysis are from a trading perspective looking at short-term view.
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I have also included my Diary, first time after 2nd Dec 2022 - predictions, my holdings, my plans for the week. Caution around Diary - This is just my opinion/plan. Probability wise one person can be wrong many times, even all the time, so please use information accordingly. So for those who like leisurely reading, enjoy. Currently it does not contain 19 new stocks I added this year, but will add in due course.
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I had written last week that I may have my diary if I see another week of stability. I think we are there - even if the question remains how long this stability will be there. Market are very volatile, and I will not hesitate to sell all my stocks, even on a loss, so please dyor and consider that.
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There are no new additions this week, so my stock list contain 73 stocks.
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.How did we start 2023 - General Markets - continuing last week's theme:

• For those to read my posts, I have been calling for a bounce for few weeks now. This is for us to take us to SP 500 to at least 4000/4030.
• We crossed 4000 for the first time on Friday. So in one sense the target I was talking about for a number of weeks has been met. So although it is not a very big thing, but somehow when on Friday it reached 4000, I felt good, satisfied - its like reaching a target you are aiming for. I have been calling this from 3700s, so arise of around 8% on index has happened. Stocks are not flying, but they are well above their recent lows
• On average stocks have moved up 10-40% as I wrote on Friday, average is in early 20s percentage. Although its not great, its a good place to be. Especially when I think how 2022 has happened, and it could have gone back 8% on indices and smashed our stocks another 20% from our lows - that means average we would be sitting now at 30-50% of where we are now
• Markets finished on 3999.09 on Friday. Does it strike something? On Friday I had written that shortly we may try 4030 and finish above 4000. The number 4000 is so important from trading/chart/sentiment perspective, that market makers/algos made sure it finished below that, if its miniscule
• Next level is 4030 and finish above 4000. That will be bullish
• A finish above 4170 may signal a bull market, its just over 4% from here - so a possibility
• A lot of analysts who were very bearish previously, I am sensing a change, they are receptive to idea that we may seen the bottom
• Caution - lot of analysts have not given up that we will reach 3250 on SP 500 and make a new low. There is also a belief that we may rally a bit more - some feel we may start dropping from end of next week, others feel we may keep going and drop early Feb. many charts including how VIX is behaving is very similar to 2008 crash - something to keep in mind
• We have started 2023 unlike 2022 - Most stocks that I follow as well as indices etc have made good gains. So there is a change. Question is if it can be sustained?
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What will happen next week - General Markets:

• Friday's trading has given a big hope that SP 500 may test 4000/4030 next week - the critical numbers I have been calling
• Number of earnings report and economic numbers next week - they may provide direction
• Us govt has to sort out debt by Thursday - they should, but if something goes wrong there, the political turmoil can create stock panic,
• Last week I had written "We should be in positive territory for most of next week - Then CPI data on Thursday will then decide the course". Somehow this came out right. Indices/stocks all finished in positive territory compared to last week.
• The markets are happiest I feel in last 5-6 weeks or so - next week is crucial to see if momentum can be maintained
• There is a chance of back test of SP 500 - a test to see if 3900 can hold. If we drop and hold this, it will be more bullish than just going up. else we might consolidate around the 4000 level before making a jump. Many feel, and believe, that we will get rejected from around 4030 - we got rejected multiple times from that trendline in 2022. So we should be open to that idea that it can happen again. But then, we have already said, 2023 is different to 2022 - we may break a lot of patterns. We already two patterns this week - Market was rallying up to CPI data, and still finished green on CPI day - this was unlike 2022 where market on CPI day was reverse of previous day. Secondly VIX dropping 10% usually a big drop on SP 500 next day - it did not happen - SP 500 gained and VIX dropped further. So there is lot of hope that things could be different in 2023.

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.Personally: I have been saying for quite sometime that I am playing for a bounce. I was around 30% cash last week. I am around 20% cash as of Friday. I bought a lot earlier in the week. Bought a lot in U sector after 3 months. Have also diversified and had very good run with 3 Oil/Gas stocks. There were gains of over 40% in 2 of them - not difficult o see which they are. looking to diversify some into Gold this week - as gold is running hot, have a few stocks I have narrowed down. But all depends on how market is going. Will not hesitate to sell everything, even on current buys loss, if I feel that we may get a 2008 style crash - chances are it may not happen, but its good keep an open mind.
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Stock specific Info:

• ESS has reached an indecisive state trading around 50c. For a break, a new offer or Management coming out with an announcement saying something different will change the course
• Last few weeks we were trading in early 30s - so we have made around 50% gain where we were last week - without an announcement we could still have been in 30s, maybe high 30s, sometimes we forget that - so the takeover offer has definetly given a good boost to SP and we should be mindful in that even with all its shortcomings
• I have no prediction what will happen. I have exited most of my position, only due to indecision and possible takeover so that my capital is not tied up, otherwise I am still bullish since I first writing on ESS 1 year back

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Here is the Figures for the Week:
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Figures for US Li stocks:
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MY DIARY - its good, but please be careful !!.
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