ESS Weekly Report, page-62

Weekly Review Li Stocks - 10th Jun 2022

Here is the weekly review figures and charts that I do every week. It is useful only for those interested in trading or those who hold multiple shares and based on performance would like to keep re-balancing as we go. I do hold a number of Li stocks and like to trade. This is the reason I include a number of Li Stocks in my analysis.

Please note:
This is no reflection of all AU Li stocks as I have only included those that I am interested. In my list are shares that I hold, held before or planning to buy in near future. Since this is my list, I may have missed some good stocks. The averages are simple averages and not weighted averages. So the average don't reflect AU Li average. This is just for my tracking and analysis.

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This week I have not added any new stocks to my list. So my list has 43 Lithium stocks.
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Please note that all my analysis are from a trading perspective looking at short-term view.
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This week there is no Diary. I am adjusting my portfolio due to two reasons - first and mainly around end of finance year and secondly volatility that is happening in the markets. So having a lot of changes in my portfolio - one planned (EOFY) and second unplanned (volatility). As this is specific to my situation, I thought I will hold on sharing that for now. Hopefully back soon.
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2 EXTRA LISTS THIS WEEK: We have had big declines in the last 2 weeks. How much will it fall further? I have done a list to show the changes from last week, 2 weeks back and April Highest SP of stocks. This is to show that the fall has been very significant, which to me tells that much of the fall may have happened (though markets can always surprise, so please dyor). Also I have compared it with 7 US Li stocks. It is very evident that US Li stocks are holding well. This means that when sentiment returns, ASX Li stocks, if they catch up, the rise will also be bigger.

Another thing to note is that stocks have fallen significantly. Eg a fall of around 50%, means stocks will need to double to reach their highs. If they have fallen 60%, a gain of 150% can be made from here. And if they have fallen around 67%, a 200% gain can be made. So if, and its a big if, the stocks do rebound, the gains can be very high because they have fallen so much.

Something to keep in mind this week:

• Stocks are in constant decline after reaching new highs in April
• After dropping for 3 weeks, then a gain of 11%, and now for last 3 weeks - -3%, -2% and -14% - so significant losses in 7 weeks with only 1 weekly gain there.
• The average decline was around 14%, but 10 stocks lost over 20% - highlighted
• Many stocks have lost 40-70% from their recent highs - big falls can be seen, lot of catching up to do
• For the year now, average gain is 15%, drop from 37% last week. Around half of the stocks are in red for the year.
• Last week I said "Any special event/incident/catalyst can completely change the trading pattern - something to keep in mind" - And it happened this week. The US Inflation figures caused huge declines. Last week it was GS report. This week it may be US Interest rate rise - so we are constantly getting bombarded with bad news.
• Markets are still volatile. Individual risk appetite and expectation should drive trading.
• There are some signs of decoupling from general market, US Li stocks are definetly showing that, not us
• US markets dropped significantly on Friday, futures are looking red for tonight, we have to deal with EOFY sell - so chances that stocks will be soft to begin with - unless some decoupling or bargain hunters stop that

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Something Positive:

• We have declined significantly, probability is that even if we fall from here, it should not be much. So risk/reward is getting skewed towards buyers
• US Li stocks have held well, I have enclosed figures for 7 stocks - so a good sign for Li macro, decoupling and ASX Li opportunity to catch up
• End of Financial Year is coming - stocks behave differently. People sell for tax reasons, but Li has mostly gained, but people may still sell to make capital gains and offset other losses - so some days bargain picking can happen. But window is shortening and its affect may soon be waning
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Here is the Figures for the Week:
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Special Figures for the 1 week, 2 weeks and decline from April High for ASX Li stocks:
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Special Figures for the 1 week, 2 weeks and decline from April High for US Li stocks:
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