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ESS essential metals limited

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High 65-70 cents short term is reasonable. ESS will be +$3 when...

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30/01/22

15:36

Post #: 59222824
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Originally posted by dc1234: ↑

Weekly Review ESS (and other Li Stocks) - 28th Jan 2022

Here is the weekly review figures and charts that I do every week. It is useful only for those interested in trading or those who hold multiple shares and based on performance would like to keep re-balancing as we go. I do hold a number of other Li stocks and like to trade. This is the reason I include a number of other Li Stocks in my analysis.

Please note:
This is no reflection of all AU Li stocks as I have only included those that I am interested. In my list are shares that I hold, held before or planning to buy in near future.Since this is my list, I may have missed some good stocks.The averages are simple averages and not weighted averages. So the average don't reflect AU Li average. This is just for my tracking and analysis.

Following changes I have made from last week:
This week I have added AZL and WR1 to the list, so now I have 23 Li stocks that I am tracking (Last week I had added AVZ/CRR)

Here is the Figures and Charts that I would be elaborating:

Weekly Review

I have covered following:
Weekly Percentage change
Yearly Percentage Change for 2022
Percentage Drop from Highest SP reached to current SP

Key Observations:

Weekly Percentage change
This was not a good week for Li stocks or for most stocks. Last week was also not good, so now 2 bad weeks in a row
There was a loss of 13% across 23 stocks I track. Last week there was gain of 4%, but most stocks had declined and the figure was skewed by BNR and CRR which had 40%+ gains
Of 23 stocks I track, ALL are in decline. Last week only half the stocks were in decline for the week
ESS had a loss of 4% this week - so a first weekly decline for us after sometime
Although ESS declined, the 4% decline was LOWEST of all 23 stocks I am tracking

Yearly Percentage change
Although not a very good last week, there are still good gains in stocks for the year
Of 23 stocks I track, 8 are in decline. Last week only 4 were in decline for the year
The average gain across 23 stocks was 21%. Last week it was a 40% gain, so a significant drop. And even this gain, the figure though is skewed by CRR and ESS which have had triple digit gains
If we remove CRR and ESS from the list, average gain is only 8%.
ESS now has gain of 154% for the year (down slightly from 164% as of last week)
CRR had spectacular gains last week and now has gain of 176% for the year

Percentage Drop from Highest SP reached after Boom Start
Most stocks are getting away from their ATH. Couple of weeks back most stocks were close to ATH - a reflection of 2 bad weeks
Last week 3 stocks were within 10% of ATH, now there are none
None of the stocks made their ATH this week, last week 10 stocks made that
On average of 23 stocks, the SP is 29% away from ATH (Last week was 18%, so we are drifting away)

IMPORTANT NOTE
On a whole, Producers did not have as much gain as others - yet, though this could change - early days still in the year
So from volatility perspective Explorers and Developers may have more swings - it may also be a reflection of risks they may carry
So its individual choice and risk appetite to see which to pick

Personally
I had a few trades this week for ESS - bought some at 37.5c and some at 46c
Added fair few AZL this week - there is some argy-bargy going around approvals which is pending from a very very long time, so it is risky from that perspective. Its individual's appetite as less risky stocks are there. At this stage I am cautiously into it
Picked up one lot of WR1, not much, to see how the Canadian lithium plays out. This is a long term play at it is in very early stage
Also looking to buy some more this week - want to see how the market ASX/DOW behave

Weekly Ahead
I have a feeling that this week will be volatile with very big swings. This is the same thing I said last week, unfortunately it turned out that way as well
The global stock market is in turmoil and its created some fear.
I know each of us will have our own way of handling this. Some will bail out as per their risk/reward and wait to stabilize, others may think of this as an opportunity to pick up cheap shares or rebalance their portfolio
Although DOW had a very good Friday, I feel we could still see some swings in ASX - though I am hoping swings are from slight increase to large increase - hoping
My numbers for this phase are 40c, 52c and 68c. We are now back to touching 52c. If the market holds this week, I feel we will shortly move towards to the 68c mark which we missed in our last run. If things don't go well, I am hoping we still have some good days with bad days to finish around the 52c mark
Based on DOW behaviour on Friday, things are looking good. But I still feel we are within the range of uncertainity - we will need a few more positive days to completely bury it for short term
Still very turbulent days ahead, so play safe and all the best

Expand

High 65-70 cents short term is reasonable. ESS will be +$3 when we get closer to production.

So cheap at the moment. All buyers are getting in early before rerate.
ESS Price at posting: 49.5¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
19 Upvote

1 Great analysis

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