ESS Weekly Report, page-3

I do look at number of other things.

For each stock, there are two things which are driving the SP - the macro factor and the characteristics and individuality of that stock.

The analysis and figures that I have given is from a particular lens. Because I am looking broadly at the sector, my focus is macro. Within macro, I am looking at trends on SP behaviour.

When buying or selling a particular stock, I do consider individual stocks. Eg ESS is on a run and FFX is retreating. There is some local factor for FFX and I am watching carefully for a reentry after selling it.

What my analysis also points out that macro is a big driver. If macro Lithium sector is doing extraordinary, then being in the sector itself is a big gain. Sometimes we ponder and hesitate a lot trying to pick up the perfect stock and this may sometimes lead to delaying or not buying. The loss is there.

Eg if blindly 2 weeks back someone had put equal amounts of money in each of the 19 stocks I am tracking, one would be ahead by 30%. Its like buying a house. If the sector is hot, its most important to buy something and hold rather than looking for perfect house and missing.

The investigation and analysis is required if either we want to put money in very few or we want to maximise our gains - then it's important to get it right. If unlucky, macro may not protect if those couple of shares don't do well. In other countries like US, there is a ETF fund made up of different stocks. If someone just wants to make gains from macro, you just invest in the fund. Here we don't have. So eg I have created my own ETF by holding a number of stocks.

Hope it answers your question. In 2021 I was lucky to have a 25bag, a Disallowed and few others in single digit bags. I have realised the biggest thing you also require for success is - luck. Let's hope its on our side for ESS and I would love to see a double digit bag. Is it possible - yes, lot of ducks have to be lined up in a row and lady luck has to be on your side. Probability for few bags from where I bought is good, for 10 bags - it's a long way to go and honestly I am not thinking that now. I set myself small targets SP and revisit how next course of action. Things may not go well for a number of reasons, how to react is also important. But for now, things are looking good, let's hope it continues. All the best.