ESS Weekly Report, page-65

Weekly Review Li Stocks - 24th Jun 2022

Here is the weekly review figures and charts that I do every week. It is useful only for those interested in trading or those who hold multiple shares and based on performance would like to keep re-balancing as we go. I do hold a number of Li stocks and like to trade. This is the reason I include a number of Li Stocks in my analysis.

Please note:
This is no reflection of all AU Li stocks as I have only included those that I am interested. In my list are shares that I hold, held before or planning to buy in near future. Since this is my list, I may have missed some good stocks. The averages are simple averages and not weighted averages. So the average don't reflect AU Li average. This is just for my tracking and analysis.

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This week I have not added any new stocks to my list. So my list has 43 Lithium stocks.
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Please note that all my analysis are from a trading perspective looking at short-term view.
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This week there is no Diary. I am adjusting my portfolio due to two reasons - first and mainly around end of finance year and secondly volatility that is happening in the markets. So having a lot of changes in my portfolio - one planned (EOFY) and second unplanned (volatility). As this is specific to my situation, I thought I will hold on sharing that for now. Hopefully back soon.
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1 EXTRA LIST THIS WEEK: Weekly change of 7 US Li stock

Another thing to note is that stocks have fallen significantly. Eg a fall of around 50%, means stocks will need to double to reach their highs. If they have fallen 60%, a gain of 150% can be made from here. And if they have fallen around 67%, a 200% gain can be made. So if, and its a big if, the stocks do rebound, the gains can be very high because they have fallen so much.
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Something to keep in mind this week:

• Stocks are in constant decline after reaching new highs in April
• After dropping for 3 weeks, then a gain of 11%, and now for last 5 weeks - -3%, -2%, -14%, -8% and now -9% - so significant losses in 9 weeks, especially last 5 weeks
• The average decline was around 9%, but around half the stocks the loss was in double digits
• Many stocks have lost 60-80% from their recent highs - big falls can be seen, lot of catching up to do
• For the year now, average loss is 5%, drop from 37% gain just 3 weeks back. This is the first week in this financial year that I am reporting negative yield.
• Markets are still volatile. Individual risk appetite and expectation should drive trading.
• There are some signs of decoupling from general market, but general market is still over powering everything

• At this stage I am at over 40% cash in my total portfolio. Have only been day trading, short term trading, exiting on any sign of decline for the 40% cash. Rest long I am holding. I may be in this phase of trading for another couple of weeks till June CPI figures on July 13, but will start holding if general markets are rising and sentiment is getting better.
• The US markets on Friday was very green. The US Li stocks though made modest gains only.
• Prediction - Stocks will start strongly this week, though at this stage I am not sure if we will be able to keep all gains till end of week. The general markets will provide direction.

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Something Positive:

• We have declined significantly, probability is that even if we fall from here, it should not be much. So risk/reward is getting skewed towards buyers
• US Li stocks have held well and done better than ASX Li stocks. This week of 7 US Li stocks that I track, they were ahead by 2%. Though Friday had good gains which we may have on Monday - so no exact comparison
• EOFY sell should be decreasing as we have this week, and that too till Tuesday. Most sells may have already happened
• I did a lot of reading this week around general market conditions. Although lot of pessimism is still there, some charts are indicating that we are getting closer towards the bottom within the range of 10% - but pleas dyor as market is on decline
• Once the plateau happens, once the price gets above 200 day moving average, many punters will get in. This may still be few week or months away, but those optimistic - for sp to move above 200 dma, sp decline should reduce from here and slowly catch up towards the line. But please dyor
• US indices rose between 5.5% to 7.5% - very strong gains for the week. Is it sign of reversal or dead cat bounce? Lets see

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Here is the Figures for the Week:
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Figures for US Li stocks:
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