I am amazed that your key take away was that 'green' production...

I am amazed that your key take away was that 'green' production was the key issue - it was hardy mentioned but thanks for bringing this to the forum. Here are my takeaways:

1. Currently there is 3-4% EV penetration and we are already seeing issues with supply, Tesla did 0.5m worldwide this year and next year they are expected to do 0.5m in China alone.
2. Product expectations are goings up, lithium (hydroxide) supply is no longer measured in parts per million, but it is now measured in parts per billion which means that there is an increasing expectation of a much higher quality product - lucky CXO has a high quality product as a potential input!
3. The key is to reduce battery cost and the only way to do this right now is to integrate the entire supply chain because it is too expensive to pay someone else to do it. Tesla is trying to do this, but Tesla will not be able to produce this supply themselves. There is a number of years where Tesla is going to have to source supply from other players - It is worth remembering that Tesla is a big player right now but there are plenty others up and coming.
4. Current battery tech is way ahead of the ability to supply it. Some of the issues in the raw material space is that 'permitting' is a key requirement - isn't it lucky that CXO is already approved!
5. In relation to Tesla/EV industry: "they are going to need everyones lithium from everywhere" in order to achieve the expected demand curve.
6. Albemarle and Livent are going to have flat production next year. They are going to restrict production because the value of producing is not worth the sales price - this means that the price is going to increase.
7. There is a 'beef' between producers and OEM's. The reinvestment (CAPEX) price is going to become very important as the industry needs to grow. The EV market is expected to grow from 2.5m vehicles to 4m vehicles in 2021, with greater growth in 2022. If CAPEX isn't provided appropriately to increase supply, then shareholders of producers simply won't approve the expansion that is absolutely required - I take this to mean that CAPEX investment will absolutely come.
8. There was an interesting question: Why has the supply chain not broken yet if the expected level of demand is so high, we keep expecting it to break but it doesn't? The response was that China cut EV subsidies last year so demand dropped there. The EU stalled (delayed) EV sales until this year because CO2 penalties did not kick in until this year, and now because of these issues (including COVID), the real potential of EV sales is only just becoming evident - I take from this that the real demand curve is going to show itself from now which adds another compounding element to the fact that prices will increase.
9. Expected structural differences between demand and supply is expected to become evident next year. This is because battery plants are being built all over the world but there is very little investment in the supply side - lucky CXO will be in a position to supply the demand! could also mean that prices will increase at a greater rate than expected.
10. The current very low cost of funding in the world right now might actually help the industry get off the ground - I absolutely agree with this point. There has been no better time in history to get a loan!

Wow! the majority of the discussion was related to hydroxide production, but there was also a fair amount of emphasis on the fact that the juniors need to get some support (funding) otherwise the industry will not function/grow. If you look at the timings mentioned and the fact that the explorers with the larger resources will actually be a few years behind the need for the supply, CXO should be ready smack bang in the middle of the rise in demand - this has always been the way I have seen it, but it is nice to have that view somewhat vindicated.

I have always said Good Luck to All, I am now thinking it should be Bad Luck to All that Miss Out (BLTATMO!).