Estimated December Half Year 2014 Results

Hi All,

Here are some estimated figures / potential revenue range i would expect for the Half Year 2014 results.

Accommodation: There are four room types (standard to executive). Ave room rate is expected to be $100 per night.
428 rooms - $100 Per Night = $42,800 Per Night
$42,800 Per night for 6 months = $3,424,000

$100 a night is a very conservative number. Hence why i’ve estimated full room bookings. 2013 Half Year accommodation revenue was $85,000, but FY 2014 revenue jumped to over $500,000 so it’s clear the new complex is delivering here.

Tables: There are 50 tables (we opened with with 40). The FY14 results showed each table produces around $5,000 per day.
50 Tables - $5,000 per day = $250,000 per day
$250,000 Per day for 6 months = $45,000,000

EGM Machines: Big growth here. Half Year 2013 presentation showed 24 slots. We now have 58. FY14 results showed revenue at $573,000 (58 slots operating since mid-may). All we can do is divide that $573,000 by 365 (days of year) to get an estimated daily slot revenue. This comes to around $1,569 for 24 machines, or about $65 per day.

This number seemed low until further research online showed slots can pull in anywhere from $50 - $220 per day. The 58 Electronic Gaming Machines at Aristo are a mixture of slots and other games like roulette. The later has a higher revenue pull. So i’ve averaged this out to be about $120 per machine per day.

$120 per EGM machine - 58 machines = $6,960 per day
$6,960 per day for 6 months = $1,252,800

So how does this stack up when comparing to Half Year 2013 results…?

Accommodation HY 2013 = $85,000
Accommodation HY 2014 = $3,424,000

Tables HY 2013 = $8,820,000
Tables HY 2014 = $45,000,000

EGM Machines HY 2013 = $101,000
EGM Machines HY 2014 = $1,252,800

Also note Food & Beverage for FY14 came in at $893,000. A jump from $570,000 FY13. With Aristo in operation for 6 weeks its safe to assume this jump of $323,000 is directly related to the increased capabilities of Aristo. $323,000 (lets say every 2 months) for 6 months = $969,000

Estimated revenue for HY 2014 = $50,645,800 (excluding - Food court, 8x Retail Shops, Ticketing Agency)
Potential range of $40m - $60m (Most likely the lower range if they haven't added any further tables beyond 40)

Or

500% increase from the corresponding HY13 results.

If the world doesn't fall apart we will see some very decent results and everyone will be rewarded for the painful ride we have all endured over the last few months. Because in the end, fundamentals trump everything. Just ask the person who bought 900,000+ shares on friday after close.

Off topic, but the new $1.4 billion highway linking Hanoi to Lao Cai has been completed this month. It’s now only a few hours drive from Hanoi to the front door of Aristo.