Totally worth doing the exercise. My numbers are pretty rough, so I am going to look into it in some more detail.
I think what needs to be done is get a good idea of demand and supply as well and its effect on the price NHC gets. I've seen 4 estimates with the top one being Commodity Insights (used by WHC in their presentations) and the bottom one (cant remember) which was $80USD/tonne.
Ive just been using current price but if the long term is $US80 then there's not much point being in NHC as far as I can see. On the other hand current prices or above things will start to be pretty nice as New Acland produces more.
If you guys have any information on supply and demand (particularly new supply coming on board) I would love to hear about it (there seems to be a bit of info available on subscription but dont have access to it)
Totally worth doing the exercise. My numbers are pretty rough,...
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