You will note from the responses that an opinion on the next financial result for NHC is far from easy.
Despite the difficulties associated with such a view I have endeavored to build a result for the 2024 year as follows:
To achieve this, I've first analyzed the 2023 result into simple numbers and tried to anticipate the equivalent numbers for 2024. I've ignored exchange fluctuations etc.
I could do this again another three times and get a different answer each time.
I suspect your idea that a dividend yield of 15% is based roughly upon NHC achieving a similar result next year against a $5 share price.
The thing is, I don't think we'll see a result like 2023 again in 2024 due primarily to the drop in the unit sales price since the heady days of 2023.
I've assumed the sale of 11mt for the year which may be a stretch. I've made unfounded assumptions around the selling price for coal, for the costs of production and the payout ratio.
That suggests to me that the dividend yield for 2024 may be around 8% fully franked.
I performed this exercise too try and get some idea of what I would be paying for at $5 per share but I hold these, not for this next year's result but because I believe that over, say, the next ten years there will be more really good results rather than bad ones but it's mining, so who knows.
