Hey Thanks for your numbers. A few things you have different to...

Hey Thanks for your numbers. A few things you have different to me on the downside and a couple of upside items for FY24 (according to my notes). I realise this is all up to personal opinion but posted in case you find useful. let me know if I have anything wrong:

Downside:

• You have 11mil tonnes sold. They are estimating 9mil tonnes in total including a total of 0.6mil tonnes from New Acland for the year (source: latest quarterlies)
• You have $250 per tonne AUD realised coal price. I have $221.45 per tonne. (source latest quarterlies). They said they had presold to Jan so Im assuming it will at least be the same for the first half.

Upside:

• Last quarterly they have FOB All in Cost per tonne of $100.7 (I think you have 130) I not certain about how this will change but assuming it will stay the same.
• You have 845 mil shares. I have used this in my calculations too but I think this will go down to 820 mill shares after remaining buyback.
• I have kept expenses at $297mil.

So for me from this I get ~7% dividend at $5.05 price and 55% payout ratio.

Agree with you totally about the reason for holding NHC shares at the moment. def not for this years results. looks good down the track assuming coal price dont go down significantly.

Barrington, I wouldn't assume 14% but you might get about 7% maybe a little more if they decide to payout some of the retained cash. Just my opinion of course.