let me know if I have anything wrong:I very much doubt that you...

let me know if I have anything wrong:

I very much doubt that you have anything wrong at all. I developed this just after the release of their annual result and hadn't been back to it since.
My $A250 per tonne looks quite optimistic. We may get a slightly better price in the second half compared to the first half ($A221.45) due to China and the northern winter but not to the extent of my estimate.
Share buybacks, costs, linked in part to weather events and variations in production levels, exchange rates and the potential for Government interventions make it all pretty difficult.
And after all of that they will make a decision on the dividend size taking into account that they have a sizeable franking credit balance as I remember.
It's all pretty hard. I performed the exercise, imperfect though it may be, as without some sort of anticipated result, it's hard to know whether the share is worth $2 or $10.