To clarify, the production multiplier used from vertical well to...

To clarify, the production multiplier used from vertical well to horizontal multi frack, should be used as a divider in the case of PBs predictive model.
88e has used a couple of ranges as below (15-25 and 10-30) both producing a mid point of 20, so its reasonable to use 20 as the divider. We know the required rate for a successful producing economic well is an initial rate of 2000-2500 as per D W below
Using 20 that gives 100-125 and given we are actually using a range, close enough
Apply the 20 to PBs chart and an initial flow of 175 will give 3500 on the horizontal production well

Looking at the chart below, two things to note
It is production /rig, so other variables also in play, drilling penetration rates, frack improvements, reservoir selection etc. But still a good metric to demonstrate the overall gains expected
Only the Eagle ford trend is a true representation at 34X, as the others were part way through the transition, to horizontal multi frack completions at the start point of the trend. On that basis using the higher end of the multiplier ranges could be justified

Dave Wall:
I'll just mention one last thing. Thanks for that, Paul. It's just this one slide that I think I'll just talk to very, very briefly. What we see here is … There's quite a lot of different ways to represent this data, but this is one of the more, I guess, powerful, easy to understand ways, which is the evolution of how these plays develop over time. What you can see on the left is really the start of a couple of the plays, so vertical appraisal wells from the place where they started out. Then, as you go towards the right, over time, the technology has advanced and people have perfected the completions in horizontals and had moved predominantly all of these plays to horizontal development. You're seeing 15 to 25 times uplift.
If you reverse calculate that back to what we need, and we think a horizontal well needs to flow two to two-and-a-half thousand barrels a day on IP for the economics of this project to work. As you'll see in the appendix and as we've released before with this breakeven less than 40 bucks, it's about 100 to 150 barrels. That's the measure of success. We get a 100 or 150 around that range and we understand why we've got that number. It's not because it's a fluke or because we've failed for the wrong reasons or whatever, and get a low number. Then, that, for us, is the measure of success. That's the guidance.