To answer your question as best as I can, it is almost...

To answer your question as best as I can, it is almost impossible to calculate as a future share price, it requires so many variables, that you yourself need to weigh up. That is why no one has answered it.

If everyone knew already, then we would be there already. That's basically how it works.

The stock market is future looking on what is likely to be the value of the business.

We are investing because we predict RNU will get there one day, based on the facts at hand that the company have supplied, plus external information on the market, and a little speculation on the future of the company in its position within that market, and the world.

The company projection of NPV was revised in 2023 and increased to a post tax $1.5billion, = share price of ~60c, 7.5x the current market capitalisation.

Market cap will reflect the valuation of the company, currently at $213M.

Previous valuations that were higher when in the discovery / potential phase (speculative investing) have past during the peak capital raise points.

Maybe google the Lassonde curve. We are in the orphan period.

We are in no man's land waiting for conformation that the project will actually go ahead, which seems to be based on mostly customers signing contracts and graphite price.

In my reasoning it will go ahead at some point given the need for the product, but there is no product being sold yet and no value add from the stage 2 processing facility, a 10x increase in sales price per ton.

A lot of if's and this is where the share price currently lies. A good investing point if you ask me.

As a company RNU is beyond the NPV realtime valuation metric by 12 months or more ago, (when graphite prices where higher) in terms of the share price reflecting the net present value of the business. It has been beaten down. Unfairly some might say, but common in investing realms at this stage.

As businesses are usually valued on earnings this is where I next try to predict share price, but as we don't have any yet ($5M interest aside), we need to rely on the company reports, and what may become true in the future.

In full swing selling spherical graphite, according to RNU's BAM study, an average EBITDA of A$363 million is expected, and this doesn't take into account the loan repayments and extra CAPEX etc, and there was a pay off period of 4ish years.

With a modest Price Earnings ratio of 10, that could be a share price of around ~$1.20-$1.50 or much more depending on reevaluations in coming years.

I don't know how long the processing facility would take to build (Check the BAM it's in there) but guessing in 3-4 years is possible. There could also be more funding for it thrown at it along the way.

If offtake contracts are signed this year and we start construction to sell flake initially, I would imagine this is a positive sign that stage 2 will eventuate, and hope to see a 30c+ share price with in the next year.

Who knows where the price of graphite will go and where demand will come from, it's another factor in determining longer term future value. There are many reports saying that the deficit is only going to increase, meaning graphite prices must go up.

When the anode material deficit comes, the valuation could be very very different from now, and if RNU is one in the few in the Western world producing, then we are there to capitalise on this.

Read through this below.- the Battery Anode Material Study 2023https://renascor.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/20230808-Siviour-Battery-Anode-Material-Study-Results-2588185.pdf

I consider myself a very average investor, and I only just wrote this post after consuming a bottle of Pinot Grigio, on top of a very long week!

Bring on $1 per share

Happy Easter long weekend

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