It has been almost 18 months since my last update to the model and with the raising clearing all potential funding concerns, my interest in MMI has been refocused. Since m last delve, there has been an acquisition, bridge loans, equity raisings, more studies. So where are we at today with the estimated valuations and potential returns?
Below is my valuation summary on MMI. Key project details are driven by BFS summary. This has been overlaid with financing structure/profile whilst tested against a number of positive and negative pricing/production scenarios. Green is good (NPV above current SP) and red is bad (NPV below current SP). The matrix shows lots of green, and with most scenarios over time being a few bags on the current SP. As such, there is an attractive asymmetric risk/return profile when investing in MMI today. The more asymmetry there is the better, as it means it is probably harder to lose money without MMI/bauxite market experiencing some exogenous or extreme event.
N.B. These are estimates and require certain assumptions to be made to complete, thus could prove to be inaccurate and are only meant as a guide to potential valuation and return outcomes, not guaranteed outcomes.
MMI Price at posting:
17.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Not Held
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