Lovely stuff happening on these threads again. Wink, you need to come back more often...!
My bit, bolted together from old scraps and pasted with Clag:
the ichimoku chart to begin:
Within the cloud again and below the tenkan.
To the daily:
the move up from 1.2150 at the end of June last year rose to about 1.3330 and retraced to the 61.8% (1.26) before taking off, eventually hitting 1.42 which is also the 178.6% extension. In general there is a bit of congestion around these fib levels and some good pivot points at the levels, which (for me at least) tends to lend some weight to the idea that other traders look to these levels and hence might also be useful in the future.
(recent bounce at 1.29 was also at the 38% fib).
Moving the fib a bit we see that the 61.8 has been broken by the recent move down through 1.3000. This might suggest a continuation down to the 0% fib eventually (ie, way down)
And here we get into a bit more of a trade-friendly area. This retrace quickly broke the 61% fib but has butted up against the 50% a few times.
A swing projection copying the 1.42 down to 1.30 implies a move from the recent 1.38 down to 1.26.
To the 4hr chart:
This chart provides targets for the near future. Fibs at 1.34 and 1.3250 will be in range for this week I think. But first I would expect a pull-back to retest around 1.37 (see previous chart - the 61%fib on the daily chart)
SO, this week I have praised the forex gods for the open at 1.3540 this morning, will go long to around 1.3650-1.37 or when a breakdown occurs (tight stops going up), and look for short for the rest of the week. How much of this actually happens, well, we'll wait and see!
