Hopefully the larger timespan stuff at the start is interesting...
Weekly
First up on the weekly chart... i want to have a look at the current structure that has been forming over the last three years or so.
This structure, though obviously a down trend, with successive lower highs and lower lows, can be easily classified as a Corrective structure on this timespan... Overlapping of highs and lows.
GENERALLY a corrective structure is seen as being against the dominant trend... As this structure is DOWN, the dominant trend on Higher timespans is UP, then it is POSSIBLE that this instrument has further major upside to go when viewed on this timespan...
Easy to say, hard to trade on that intraday, but something worth bearing in mind.
Zooming in a bit to have a look at the latest leg up and get into some fibonnacci n potential wave stuff.
Okay a coupla things that kinda support further upside at least on this latest leg...
At this stage a clear set of three waves can be seen... these three waves are marked out in purple...
Further weight to the upside seems to be borne out by recent observations of mine regarding fibbonnacci versuus wave theory and go thus...
The marked wave 3 is an almost exact 1.618 extension of marked wave 1... lower timespan observations have hinted that a 5 wave trend often sees wave three topping out at 1.618 times wave 1 (the fibbonnacci levels are the thick purple ones with 100 percent at top of wave 1, and 1.617 a tad below the top level of the conjectured 3).
Further towards support of this being a potential 5 wave up trend, is given by the level at which the marked 4??? is located. In this case a bottoming neatly between 50% and 61.8% of the prior rise. (fobonacci retracements marked in thick green, with additional line segments in blue at these levels). Again on lower timespans this is an IDEAL spot for a bottoming of wave 4.
One further observance based on fobbonacci levels is the fact that wave three managed to get further than a 61.8 percent retrace of the prior down wave. Obsevances on lower timespans suggest agreater than 61.8 percent retrace prior to a 5 wave trend completion SUGGESTS that FULL completion of the trend will see yet a higher retrace than that acheived by the third wave...
Note also current locations of both the stochastics, Just made it over the 50% line (oft a sign of further upside) and the MACD signal lines, hinting at a cross to the upside. However on a cautionary Note. the grey trend line that was broken in creating the conjectured wave 4 down, and the recent touch of this trendline which has seen a rejuction of price.
All well n good, but absolutely worthless to me in my current intraday trading :) :) :) So pop down to the daily and see what is goin on there.
Big picture view first to relate back to the weekly chart above...
Colour scheme of large purple numbers from the weekly... But on this chart I would greatly like to draw your attention to the marked up MACD as on this timespan the MACD seems fairly clear.
looking at the signal lines alone, so far they are conforming to what I would "expect" to occur in a well laid out five wave uptrend...
First the top of wave one (based on weekly numbering) cleared the zero line and topped out above it... Both Price Wave 2 and MACD moving average wave 2 were above the bottom of wave 1. Wave three sees both MACD moving averages and Price higher than wave 1 The conjectured bottom of wave 4 occurred at a lower level than wave two on the MACD moving averages.
If and only if we are in a "true" wave 5 now, expectations are that it will make a new high, higher than wave 3. BUT
at this very stage we are at an interesting time...
wave 5s can fail (any wave can fail, the joys of analysis :) )
The mentioned trendline break and fail at retest as mentioned on the weekly is a tad more apparent here. Tthe stochastics, have signaled through divergence and a break down from the overbought area that downside is in the offing, and we are on a verge of a crossover DOWN on the MACDs on this timespan.
So, looking at this timespan alone, and looking at price itself, we can see a lower low has just formed, a precursor to further downside Bearish large downside engulfing candles also lend support to the downside in the immediate term.
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The shorter term, tradeable stuff is in the Prep thread
