I don't think you are giving enough weight to China, Russia and India.
Putin has ordered that 10% of federal bank reserves be in gold. The Chinese gold market is really just starting. They are lumbered with one and a half trillion American dollars which I would bet they would prefer to be in gold right now.
Ordinary Chinese are now buying gold too. Indians are insatiable consumers of gold and as their rich get richer they too will add to their gold assets.
If the price of gold falls some mines will close. It's getting very expensive to dig deeper for gold. There will be a shortfall in supply. Big demand, small supply?
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