Hi All.
With the Big 3 looking to fight each other and kill off all other high cost iron ore producers, what will be left?
There are very few Low Cost iron ore producers and very few Future Low Cost iron ore producers to come on line.
Who would be most able to provide low cost, high grade iron ore to Europe and The Middle East?
Cost of shipping from Brazil to Europe and The Middle East would be a lot cheaper than from Australia.
Vale would be at a big advantage over RIO and BHP from Australia because of shipping cost, just like RIO and BHP have the advantage over Vale shipping to China.
Who else can compete with Vale to Europe and The Middle East when only Low Cost, High Grade iron ore is available. to economicaly be produced and sold?
Simandou if it gets off the floor, High Cost of $15 to $20 billion to start up. Not expected to start for quite a few years, at least 5 years, if not closer to 10 years going by the past problems in Guinea with getting Funding and because of Government problems with Mining deals, I believe now the Government Mining Code gives around 35% ownership of Projects to the Guinea Government.
Who else is left to come on line if Funding is available, who has Low Cost, High Grade Iron Ore?
The only Region I can think off is The so called Iron Ore Golden Triangle, The Next Pilbara as some have called it.
This area can ship its Iron Ore cheaper to Europe, South Africa, America and the Middle East a Lot cheaper than RIO and BHP can from Australia.
This Region has Iron Ore with Grades as High if not Higher than RIO and BHP have in Australia. The Pilbara is running out of 62%Fe Iron Ore. This Region in Africa has not started using its High Grade DSO, Concentrate and Pellet Feed yet.
This Region in Africa is working on looking to fund Rail and Port to ship a total of 200Mtpa on a Duel Rail Line System within a few years of start up. The Cameroon Government have asked for the Funding figures needed to be provided to them.
At least 4 projects in close proximity to each other and 1 close to the proposed Rail Corridor with expected export totals of around 200Mtpa. The 4 project's in a cluster could viably with funding produce 200Mtpa between them.
That is based on figures they each expect to produce in DSO from their projects. Those figures could probably be raised even higher with High Grade Concentrate and Pellet Feed iron ore being produced.
One Project has at least 50% of its iron ore produced ear marked for China, another 15% most probably for production into steel at a local steel mill in Cameroon. This company will most probably start off looking to export around 50Mtpa by the time the projects are built, they have started off with 35Mtpa and upped that to 40Mtpa at this time in 2015.
This Region in Central West Africa is looking to build a Port that would look to handle ships with a capacity of 300,000 DWT of Iron Ore. Port site is in deep water, close to shore, so very cheap to build.
Rail needed at an expected cost in Central West Africa of around $3 million per kilometre.
Rail cost in The Pilbara around $5 million per kilometre.
I leave it up to you to decide.
Regards
Westcott.
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