Remember Lyas has gone from over 14% 4 years ago to under 10%...

Remember Lyas has gone from over 14% 4 years ago to under 10% now. If demand goes up Lynas share will go down. Project slips will reduce this to below 8% in a year. China is holding back production they are not shipping close to their quotas Price is the problem. Lynas is doing every thing they can to ship what they are doing . If demand goes up Lynas % of market goes down. As far as 2025 I will have to see some projects completed and volume going up steeply before I believe it.

As far as KAL I fully believe it will have high enough production to fully support Lamp in this CY. People seem to forget that KAL has NO separation or purification capabilities at all so Lamp is still the bottle neck. Texas does not even have a site finalized yet. So where is finished product going to be made? Is Lynas going to Sell KAL concentrate to China Like MP to have higher capacity and revenue out of KAL. I do not think so, it is an option.
Here is a chart of Lamp out put of NdPr. Last Q they came close to next but they still have not achieved it. Take a look at original name plate and how many times they have even achieved that! I picked Q1 2015 for a reason. AL was appointed CEO 5 June 2014 https://wcsecure.weblink.com.au/pdf/LYC/01523274.pdf. She did great at first in increasing production not so well since 2018. This is why Steady increases in out put is one of my 3 major goals to reinvest in Lynas. SP is not one of the top 3. I want to be a long term investor with out demonstrated increases in out put I will stay out. Talking about futures 2 ~ 5 years out is meaningless, If you cannot demonstrate some small successes right now. So far nothing.

1. If they make 1800 tons or more of NdPrO Q4 and Q1 I would absolutly call that progress. Time will tell.
2. if KAL is producing enough Concentrate to supply Lamp by end of Q1 2024. that would be progress.
3. If they show a nice improvement in revenue Q4 to Q1 that would be great.

At this point I will buy! I will miss the bottom for sure might even pay in the AU$ 8.XX ~ 9XX range. I know they are on the way. Missing bottom by $2 or $3 will not mater because then the stock will soar making that miss unimportant. To buy now with not one clear indication of what is going to happen other than talk, is just above my risk threshold. Seeing is believing.