Thanks Bluegoose and BRProject.
I have spent a decade plus on the buyside, so conducting diligence companies is my business. I came on here to understand what retail investors think of the stock because the buyside is clearly unaware/dont like it (just looking at the register)
I think if the SPAC deal gets completed, the 30-cent EUR price seems conservative. Obviously it depends on where SZZL trades, but using peer comps, a fully financed project in a tier one (from a safety perspective) should be valued at between 0.4-0.6x of the NPV of the asset. So that is between US$600m - US$900m for SZZL. Assuming EUR owns ~80% of the SPAC post financing, it will own ~US$480m - $US720m (equivalent of 70-cents to $1 for EUR equivalent).
This doesn't mean EUR captures this value, there are a lot of companies that trade below their asset value (mainly because investors dont believe they will ever realize the equity value and/or they believe management will waste the value of the asset. I think EUR would be very well placed, if the SPAC goes ahead, to announce that i plans to distribute in-specie back the SZZL stake to shareholders (or a portion of it). This would ensure that arbitrage funds globally would take a look at this and the spread between SZZL's valuation and EUR's equivalent ownership would shrink. No idea if Tony is amenable to this, but i would suggest he thinks about it.
As for the debt piece, announcing a combined equity and debt piece for the asset is key for me (as it unlocks the probability of the asset NPV). There are many processes where several banks do the work on an asset and pass, so i will wait to see it announced before getting excited. I have see several people suggest that the Saudi's will fully finance the Hydroxide plant, i hope so, but i would also like to see this on paper before pricing it in.
Overall it seems really interesting to me. Ill keep working.
