Base Resources Ltd (BSE $0.40) Buy, Initiation of Coverage Kwale a company maker.
Base Resources Ltd (BSE) has a 100% interest in the Kwale mineral sands project in Kenya.4 Kwale is an advanced project with a completed BFS and project expenditure to date of US$70m.
Forecast annual production of ~80kt of rutile, ~40kt of zircon and ~ 300kt of ilmenite.
Current resource of 255mt @ 3.5% HM underpins proposed mine life of +10yrs.
Revised capital cost in the range of US$225-250m.
Potential revenue of US$160-180m p.a. generating EBITDA of $80-$100m once in full production.
Price outlook for key products is excellent.
Zircon market remains in deficit, current price of +US$1,000/t with expectations of +US$1,500/t over the next 2-3yrs.
Market conditions for high value rutile are tight and prices rises anticipated.
The Enhanced Feasibility Study is due in April11 with construction expected to start in the 2nd H CY11.4 Kwale is one of the few advanced projects worldwide capable of being in production within 2-3yrs.
Our valuation is $0.76/sh, risk adjusted to 70%. Longer term, we see potential for BSE to be a +$1.00/sh company as development hurdles are overcome and production commences.
We initiate coverage with a Buy and a $0.76/sh price target. Short term catalysts include:∙ completion of EFS∙ funding arrangements∙ start of construction∙ continued price rises for zircon and rutile
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