AVM 0.00% 2.4¢ advance metals limited

Key PointsƒÏƒnStrong production result from...

  1. 142 Posts.
    Key Points
    ƒÏƒnStrong production result from Dikulushi.
    ƒÏƒnDoubling of Kula resource to 255kt of Cu provide impetus to study SX-EW option.
    ƒÏƒnProduction and earnings forecast to double over next yr.
    ƒÏƒnInitial Kinsevere resource of 348kt of Cu exceeds
    expectations.
    ƒÏƒnAttributable copper resources of +500kt.
    ƒÏƒnTarget price $0.80/sh.

    Comments
    Dikulushi has enjoyed a strong turnaround after the problems in 1st H of the CY¡¦05. A record qtrly production result plus a record month in Oct¡¦05 (2.1kt of Cu), combined with the doubling of the Kula resource, imminent commissioning of this project, initial 348kt resource at Kinsevere and a strong copper market has resulted in AVM bouncing back to previous share price levels of Mar¡¦05.
    The commissioning of the second ball mill combined with access to run of mine ore resulted in a record qtr production of 5.7kt @ US$0.79/lb at Dikilushi. This performance continued in Oct with a record month of 2.1kt of Cu.
    Sampling of the river gravels was extended from 7.5km to 12.5km and resulted in a doubling of the contained copper. The rsc has grown from 1.5mt @ 6.8% Cu to 4.3mt @ 4.4% Cu plus a fine tailings component of 44kt for a global rsc of 255kt Cu.
    AVM will now start a feasibility of a SX-EW plant at Kula. This appears to be a logical development strategy in light of the increased TC/RC charges and low cost power available in Kolwezi.
    We believe an SX-EW project producing ~ 25kt Cu pa would have low operating costs of ~US$0.50/lb and could potentially add some $60m or $0.20/sh to our valuation.
    The Kula project is on track for commissioning in Dec¡¦05 which will see copper production increase to ~ 40kt in CY¡¦06, increasing to 50kt in CY¡¦07 as higher grade Dikulushi ore is mined. Earnings are forecast to increase from US$8m in CY¡¦05 to US$20m in CY¡¦07
    (based on a Cu price of US$1.15/lb).
    The initial oxide resource at Kinsevere of 8.4mt @ 4.1% Cu for 348kt exceeded our expectation of ~ 250kt of Cu. This is likely to be the third operation with a potential start up in late CY¡¦06.
    Ultimately this is likely to develop into another SX-EW operation after Kula has been successfully developed.
    We have increased our valuation from $0.64/sh to $0.80/sh with better Dikulushi production performance, a larger Kula and
    Kinsevere resource. With attributable copper resources of +500kt and the likely development of an SX-EW operation will take AVM a long way towards its objective of becoming a mid tier copper producer.
 
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