LOM 3.85% 5.4¢ lucapa diamond company limited

Euroz Speaks Volumes, page-30

  1. 141 Posts.
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    US$4m PARTIAL loan capital repayment (and there appears to be no interest charged on financing operations - so why would anybody rush to repay debt?).

    China recently built two hydro dams for Angola, with cement - not dirt like Brazil tailings dams, these would be expensive big ticket items.

    Logically China likes clockwork periodic interest repayments - especially during Trade War with USA affecting China export revenue. Unclear if Angola is selling this electricity to poor rural locals who can afford to pay? Eeven if it seems “on paper” cheaper than diesel powered electricity (probably used in very limited or directly profitable actions) there may be resistance to a regular expensive bill - which also likely has a periodic connection / supply charge on top of the usage rate.

    Angolan government perhaps sending monthly US$ payments to China which would drain US$ cash reserves at Angolan Treasury. Thought China was going to take capital repayment as crude oil exports at what pricing? Perhaps the pricing is lower than French oil: Total so it is financially sensible to send “firstly” to French & pay China in US$.

    Perhaps just the monthly interest on two hydro dams is draining US$ cash reserves for a while?

    Perhaps money spent repairing & changing the oil infrastructure so Angola can actually move crude oil to export supply French Total was financed by Total & now each month some of their oil money payable deducts Oil R&M debt reduction meaning the net sent is less than what the government would like to spend on community programs & supporting economic growth initiatives outside oil sector. Seems weird, I though Angola was second largest oil exporter in Africa (volumes not historically down - thought was starting to rebound up) & barrel sell prices were historically ok or above average??

    Lots of reading & a general gauge of all that over last 3 years (possibly too short period) - seemed to summarise that massive oil infrastrucure revamp + some special engineering (use flare gas - so running cost supposed to be cheaper & enviro better) expensive upfront + diesel retailing stimulus with Total for increased business productivity + 2 hydro dams + some overprice public buildings & perhaps some hospital expenditure has taken up all reasonable expected government revenue. Upside may be finding old oil money plundered & as happens further community development can be enacted.

    Can somebody be more accurate according perhaps to Angolan Treasury BUDGET / actual financial report card (like Oz)? I did read one previously (hence summary paragraph above).

    Perhaps Angola has got 2 hydro dams it intends to pay off in 20 years but that may have a Chinese built lifecylce of 50 - 80 years?? Logically turbines (moving parts) would seem to have a shorter lifespan than a stationary wall - as long as the footings do not move & cracks form due to earthquakes / big or shifting loads - undermined... water can be very tricky to manage, but should be easier than managing oil sytems (which is likely done by industry who reports to / audited by government...thus oil volume should become better predictable but oil export pricing over time is an entire different volatility evaluation.

    It does seem sensible to take longer term loans against longer term assets for Angolan operating environment, whereas many Chinese contractors / businesses historically run massive operations on yearly money supply finance deals. Chinese contractors probably need to match rapidly evolving CCP Directives to comply whereas Angola develops less aspects & slower (African time).

    Put more simply with more & controlled water for irrigation agriculture you would expect Angola to increase food / protein exports over time (presuming pests & plagues can be controlled). Perhaps 50 tractors added are still in startup phase of multiple programs to strengthen Angolan economy.
 
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