euroz still likes aut , $5.20, page-19

It's not just Euroz that still likes AUT, it would seem.

Both of GMP Securities (26 September - $4.50) and Commonwealth Bank (3 October - $3.70) still have a bullish stance and targets significantly above present prices.

It is possibly the dearth of news that is slowing the recovery in price. TXN has responded well to the good news of the Tyler 2 30 day results but they are less than the results produced by our own Morgan and Rancho wells. Morgan 30 day was 56,733 boe and Rancho 45,367 boe.

It is difficult to compare because Hilcorp throttled down the wells after those two, which were reported as flowing through restricted chokes anyway.

So, we might have to await some of the results of the drilling on Longhorn before the market starts to take proper notice of the potential. Excelsior was never going to light fires.

According to GMP, which does an analysis of the prospective wells by acreage split between low condensate, high condensate, Longhorn oil, Excelsior oil and Excelsior oil (2p), Longhorn is equally split between high condensate and oil with calculated NPV10 (post tax)/well of $13.4m and $8.2m based on NSAI curves (which are conservative as compared to actual results). The Excelsior wells are $4m and $1.2m for the two categories.

The averaged Longhorn NPV10 (post tax) is $10.8m and it looks like they are planning to drill 108 Longhorn wells by the end of 2012. That's an increase in NPV10 for Longhorn wells in production alone of $373m.