CVN 0.00% 16.0¢ carnarvon energy limited

Euroz update: Price target $.94 maintained, page-5

  1. 6,557 Posts.
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    There is clear evidence that Q had trouble getting anywhere near what it wanted pre-dorado. This is why the story went from an outright sale, to an IPO... which was then abandoned. Why? No one had the appetite to buy Q's rapidly diminishing assets for anything near what it wanted.

    It is clear now that only STO who already share projects with Quadrant was interested but still wouldn't bite. But now with the massive success at Dorado, it's tipped them over. A lot of value from Dorado and the broader permit areas are baked into the upfront price, we just can't be sure of how much.

    Just working backwards based on the 32%+ reduction in Q's 2P reserves since 2015 hough can help give you a ballpark figure to then work your other assumptions into. There's a lot of unknowns still with the royalty payments for example, but overall I think this is a good result for CVN.

    STO have also made it clear they are committed to appraising and developing Dorado in the near term which is super exciting:

    "The Dorado discovery and broader basin was a key tenet within the transaction, evident within the conference call and presentation accompanying the announcement, proposing:
    - 2 well Dorado appraisal campaign in 2019;
    - Front End Engineering Design (“FEED” in 2020;
    - At least 4 high grade drill ready prospects to potential boost scale of Dorado-Phoenix development hub(s)"

    The other big positive for me is that I think this substantially increases the likelihood the gas assets will be developed.

    Anyway, some of the johnny come lately's may have been shaken out today, but perhaps it'll set us up for a bigger run up.
    Last edited by Sojourner: 23/08/18
 
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