Euro extends gains and considers test of channel resistance....

Euro extends gains and considers test of channel resistance. Dollar/Yen finally breaks below 50-Day SMA to accelerate declines. Cable still locked in choppy directionless trade. Dollar/Swiss long triggered at 1.1400; target 1.1740. Dollar/Cad setbacks seen limited from here. Australian Dollar well capped by 200-Day SMA. New Zealand Dollar rallies not seen lasting.




EUR/USD


EUR/USD – The overall outlook remains unchanged and continues to favor USD strength in the days ahead. The current rebound is still classified as corrective and a closer look at the daily chart shows the market locked in a bear channel. As such, we look for any gains to now be limited to falling trend-line resistance in the mid-1.3300’s with only a break back above 1.3400 delaying outlook. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL. Level
Resistance
Details

1.3585
R3
4/6 high

1.3515
R2
4/2 high

1.3395
R1
4/13 high

Level
Support
Details

1.3165
S1
4/23 high

1.3115
S2
4/24 low

1.3035
S3
4/22 high





USD/JPY


USD/JPY – The recent break below the 50-Day SMA delays hopes for additional recovery back above 100.00 and now opens the door for deeper setbacks over the coming days towards the 95.00 area. However, trade remains extremely choppy and we do not rule out the possibility of a reversal into the early week back to the upside. Key levels to watch above and below come in by 98.15 and 95.65. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL. Level
Resistance
Details

98.90
R3
4/21 high

98.45
R2
4/23 high

98.15
R1
4/24 high

Level
Support
Details

96.65
S1
4/24 low

95.95
S2
3/30 low

95.65
S3
3/12 low





GBP/USD


GBP/USD – No reason to be taking positions at current levels with the market caught in the middle of a very choppy range. Our bias however is for an eventual resumption of the broader downtrend to be confirmed on a break back below 1.4395 which should then open a fresh downside extension exposing next key support by 1.4110 (30Mar low). Any rallies should be well capped below 1.4820, but only a sustained break back above 1.5000 would be required to shift outlook. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL. Level
Resistance
Details

1.4945
R3
4/17 high

1.4820
R2
4/20 high

1.4775
R1
4/24 high

Level
Support
Details

1.4575
S1
4/24 low

1.4500
S2
Psychological

1.4395
S3
4/22 low





USD/CHF


USD/CHF – Although the pullback this week has been quite severe, with the market trading from 1.1740 down 1.1350 thus far, our outlook remains constructive with the pair testing some rising trend-line support, and the 200-Day SMA which has proved to be a formidable buoy. A series of higher highs and higher lows over the past several weeks leaves us projecting yet another higher low in the mid-1.1300’s ahead of the next upside extension back above 1.1740. Our long recommendation from Thursday has triggered and we target a move back towards 1.1740 over the coming days. Position: LONG @1.1400 FOR A 1.1740 OBJECTIVE, STOP @1.1280. Level
Resistance
Details

1.1600
R3
4/22 low

1.1530
R2
4/24 high

1.1455
R1
4/17 low

Level
Support
Details

1.1345
S1
200-Day SMA

1.1305
S2
4/13 low

1.1240
S3
4/6 low





USD/CAD


USD/CAD – Despite the sharp pullbacks seen on Thursday, the overall structure still remains quite constructive with the market posting a series of medium-term higher lows over the past several months. A fresh higher low is now sought out by 1.1980 (16Apr low) ahead of the next major upside extension back above 1.3065 over the coming weeks. As such, we have bought into the current pullback to the 78.6% fib retrace off of the 1.1980-1.2510 move. Position: LONG @1.2100 FOR A 1.2500 OBJECTIVE, STOP 1.1950. Stops to be trailed to cost on a break back above 1.2150. If the market fails to break above 1.2150 however, we will exit the position on the NY close Friday. Level
Resistance
Details

1.2510
R3
4/21 high

1.2325
R2
4/21 low

1.2270
R1
4/24 high

Level
Support
Details

1.2075
S1
4/24 low

1.2000
S2
Psychological

1.1980
S3
4/16 low





AUD/USD


AUD/USD – The market continues to chop around within a very broad 0.6000-0.7300 range dating back to October 2008. The overall structure remains grossly bearish and given the proximity to the range highs, we like the idea of looking for opportunities to be short the pair in anticipation of retest of the range lows at minimum. The 200-Day SMA has managed to cap rallies over the past several days and we look for the longer-term SMA to once again cap by current levels. A break back below 0.7100 should help to accelerate declines. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL. Level
Resistance
Details

0.7360
R3
10/7 high

0.7320
R2
4/16 2009 high

0.7255
R1
4/20 high

Level
Support
Details

0.7105
S1
4/24 low

0.7000
S2
4/22 low

0.6955
S3
4/20 low