Hi GCarNo arguments from me. I really hope that long term trend...

Hi GCar

No arguments from me. I really hope that long term trend continues and those growth targets are hit. I have a lot of coin on the table, and my predictions and hopes are that will be the case.

In regard to these numbers, I am just focused on what has been and not on what can be. I am talking and trying to make sense of this downturn and its justification. It's happened, I was on the wrong side of the numbers (I got lazy), and I need to learn and be ready for future events. I am making sense of the past and not making predictions for the future.

There is a lot of discussion on the growth compared to 2023, but 2023 was a bad year. Jan-Feb 23 approx 290,000 extra cars than the year before (worse than 2021 growth). Take a look at Jan-Feb 22, approx 560,000 extra cars then the year before (and that is with a smaller yearly global total than 2023). With hindsight, that was the marker of this inventory growth situation that caused all these problems. Jan-Feb are very volatile months, so it's even better to look a little before and after to get a smoother picture. When you put together a 5-6month window and correlate it back to what has happened in the sector, it all makes sense.

These are global numbers, and car sales still have too much dependence on Chinese sales. Late in 2023, many countries around the world were not selling as much as they should have. Therefore, China for now has market control. We will face much volatility until China represents a much smaller percentage of global EV sales.

Any growth is good. However, we really want growth to be larger than supply growth, and the numbers, even though they were good, were not enough. Thankfully, the supply is being switched off; project delays are coming online. LTM and PLS are in perfect positions due to being low-cost producers, and while many need to switch off and delay, we can keep moving forward profitably. Yes, Mt C might be impacted, but that is negated by the fact that we have a much better and profitable supply finally coming online in Argentina.

I might not be explaining myself well, but if we reflect on the numbers that has been, not what is coming, I think my analysis is reasonably good. I personally will be taking a closer look at such warning signs in the future.