EV and battery thread, page-63

I have done a lot more research on the demand side and when I write XYZ million EV sales in 2024 then I am relatively confident in it. Forecasting the supply side is more difficult and I am mostly relying on other sources for supply forecasts: Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, Fastmarkets etc. what I can find. You already know all the names. Investor presentations from various companies within the supply chain or even investment bank analysis can be useful. But everything has to be taken with a grain of salt (including my own posts).

That's why I am trying to always share my sources. Verify this stuff for yourself and look for other sources, but not every random youtube video that already has a clickbait title like "It's all over" lol. Forecasting aggregate supply bottom up by adding the supply from each project is already difficult and will become more difficult in the future. I don't fault forecasters for not being able to forecast irrational behaviour of participants within the supply chain, when they get all other datapoints right. Absolutely nobody predicted the highest spot prices in China, because how do you want to exactly predict how a phase of panic buying will exactly affect prices!?

EV sales are also uncertain to a certain extent, but what I have learned is that car makers are quick to react to changes in the underlying EV demand, incentive changes or the actions of competitors. They will for example adjust prices quickly to increase demand even if they previously publiclcy said that they won't do that and that they believe that this was the wrong strategy. The vast majority of EV sales happens in price sensitive segments and most brands can simply not afford to ignore what the competition is doing.´

I would say the same about the much critisized Toyota and its chairman Akio Toyoda, who recently said that he believed that BEV market share would peak at 30 %, although it was already at 27 % in China in December. They have to adjust to what the rest of the industry is doing and what consumers choose to buy. They will publicly defend their old strategy and (so far still very successfully) milk their existing technology while working on all new BEV technology (dedicated electric platform, batteries, new OS / software etc.) behind the scenes.