...the reason I said ASX lithium has not reached bottom is because FOMO market participants (thinking they are getting the bargain of the century) have had to learn a hard lesson buying high at the start of the session (thinking this is beginning of the recovery trade) only to lose -5% at the close- you have to have several rounds of such beat-up before it can finally sink in that the lithium trade is not going anywhere during this Winter Hibernation. After several rounds, there would be more sellers than buyers and the FOMO trade wanes until exhausted.
...once awhile the shorts panic into cover but that does not mean the outlook has suddenly changed for the better, The lithium stock trajectory has less to do with shorts than it is to the dire outlook for EV/Lithium over the next 12-18 months.
Not yet ready to say that prices are bottoming out because for that to happen prices of spodumene and lepidolite concentrates need to show signs of an upturn. Despite they have been decreasing more rapidly than #lithium carbonate prices, they haven't triggered the bottom. Why? https://x.com/jczuleta/status/1826461198864314547
..why Juan? Do Chinese EV & EV battery makers need as much demand for Spod outside of their own lithium mines?
..where else can demand for Spod come from other than China? When EVs outside of China is taking a backseat.
..the price is not moving because forward demand is weak. And you can't keep Spod too long without getting bad.
